On Wednesday, August 12, 2026, FootProbability analyzed 8 matches using its Dixon-Coles/Poisson statistical model.
Among these matches, 4 Value Bets were identified. However, not all opportunities present the same level of data quality.
For the main selections, FootProbability now favours matches with complete real statistics, without using the fallback data system.
🔥 Today's best picks
🥇 Rapid Vienna – Paide
Compétition : UEFA Europa Conference League
Pronostic : BTTS — Les deux équipes marquent
Cote : 2,63
EV : +75,8 %
Score probable : 2-1
Confiance du modèle : 54,6 %
The model estimates the probability of both teams scoring at 66.9%.
Offensive projections are also high, with 68.9% for Over 2.5.
Above all, this match benefits from maximum data quality in the FootProbability model:
Model quality: FULL
Source: Real statistics
Fallback: No
With a BTTS probability of 66.9% and odds of 2.63, the model identifies a significant gap between its estimate and the price offered by the market.
🥈 Talleres Córdoba – Lanús
Competition: Liga Profesional Argentina
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.90
EV: +7.9%
Probable Score: 1-1
Model Confidence: 42.8%
FootProbability estimates the probability of Over 2.5 at 37.2%.
This selection is unusual: Over 2.5 is not the model's most likely scenario. However, the odds of 2.90 are higher than the theoretical odds corresponding to this probability, which creates a small expected positive value.
La rencontre bénéficie elle aussi de données complètes :
Model Quality: FULL
Source: Real-world statistics
Fallback: No
Risk Level: Low
It is therefore more a matter of selecting value than making a high-probability prediction.
📊 Today's figures
The situation before the matches on August 12th:
8 matches analyzed
4 Value Bets detected
Average EV: +4.9%
Average confidence: 42.8%
All Value Bets remain available in the member area, but only matches meeting the most demanding quality criteria are highlighted in the main selection.
🧠 Why only two main selections?
It's intentional.
Some of today's matches show a positive EV, but are based on partial data or the contextual_fallback system.
This is particularly the case of FC Copenhagen – Debreceni VSC and Paris Saint-Germain – Aston Villa.
Rather than artificially completing a Top 3, FootProbability prefers to display two matches with complete statistical data.
This distinction is important: a Value Bet is not a guarantee of winning. It simply indicates that the probability calculated by the model is likely to make the offered odds mathematically attractive.
🎯 FootProbability's selection for August 12th
🥇 Rapid Vienna – Paide: BTTS Yes @2.63 — EV +75.8%
🥈 Talleres Córdoba – Lanús: Over 2.5 @2.90 — EV +7.9%
Probabilities and odds may change until kick-off. Selections are based on a statistical model and are never a guarantee of results.
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