On Thursday, August 13, 2026, the FootProbability statistical model analyzed the available matches to identify interesting discrepancies between its probabilities and the odds offered by the market.
In total, 43 matches were analyzed and 18 Value Bets were detected, with an average EV of +16.9% and an average confidence of 43.8%.
As always, the number of Value Bets does not mean that all selections are equally attractive. The model takes into account the estimated probability, the available odds, the EV, and the overall quality of each opportunity.
⭐ Best prediction of the day: Shelbourne – Ajax
The Shelbourne – Ajax match stands out as the main FootProbability selection of the day.
Prediction: BTTS — Both Teams to Score
Odds: 2.10
EV: +71.0%
Model Score: 67/100
The model identifies here a particularly large gap between its statistical projection and the proposed rating for the BTTS market.
An EV of +71% represents a significant theoretical difference. However, this does not mean that the bet has a 71% higher chance of winning: EV measures the difference between the probability calculated by the model and the price offered by the bookmaker.
It is this notion of value, rather than simply searching for the favorite, that constitutes the central principle of FootProbability.
🔥 18 Value Bets detected today
The day of August 13th offers a significantly larger volume of matches, with 18 opportunities classified as Value Bets among 43 matches analyzed.
But FootProbability does not seek to automatically transform each of them into a strong recommendation.
A high odds can produce a spectacular EV even though the probability of success remains relatively low. Conversely, a selection with a more moderate EV can benefit from a more balanced statistical profile.
That's why we're looking at, in particular:
la probabilité calculée par le modèle ;
la cote réellement disponible ;
l’espérance de valeur (EV) ;
la confiance du modèle ;
le score global de la sélection ;
la qualité des données disponibles.
🧠 Pourquoi Shelbourne – Ajax ressort-il ?
With a model score of 67/100 and an EV of +71.0% on the BTTS Yes at 2.10, Shelbourne – Ajax presents today a particularly interesting compromise between detected value and quality of selection.
The choice of market is also important.
FootProbability does not systematically attempt to predict the winner. For each match, different markets can be compared, including:
1X2 • Over/Under 2.5 • BTTS
The engine may therefore prefer "Both teams to score" even when one team seems to be the favorite if the price offered on that market has more value according to its probabilities.
📊 FootProbability figures for August 13, 2026
The photograph of the day is therefore the following
⚽ 43 matchs analysés
💰 18 Value Bets détectées
📈 EV moyenne : +16,9 %
⭐ Confiance moyenne : 43,8 %
These indicators provide an overall view of the day, but they should not be interpreted as probabilities of winning.
🎯 The FootProbability prediction to remember
For August 13, 2026, the main selection therefore appears as follows:
Shelbourne 🆚 Ajax
🎯 BTTS — Les deux équipes marquent
💰 Cote : 2,10
📈 EV : +71,0 %
📊 Score modèle : 67/100
Odds can change until the start of the match. A Value Bet represents a statistical opportunity identified at a given moment and is not a guarantee of the outcome.
📈 Track the model's performance
The value of a statistical model cannot be measured by a single match.
Foot Probability tracks its selections over time in order to evaluate the results, success rate, odds played and above all the overall ROI of the model.
This approach allows the strategy to be judged on a large sample rather than on the isolated result of a prediction.
Trust the Numbers. 📊⚽
🔞 For adults only. Gambling involves risks: financial loss, debt, and addiction. Play responsibly.