The football predictions for August 14, 2026 offer another particularly rich day for the FootProbability model.
After analyzing the available matches, the model studied 55 matches and identified 41 Value Bets, with an average EV of +15.3% and an average confidence of 45.5%.
Among all these opportunities, we have selected three matches presenting interesting profiles by combining the available odds, the expected value (+EV), the confidence and the score assigned by the model.
📊 FootProbability's 3 predictions for August 14, 2026
🇪🇪 Nõmme United – Tammeka
Prognosis: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 3.20
EV: +49.9%
Model score: 57/100
Confidence: 45.7%
Probable score: 1-1
This is the selection that stands out the most today.
FootProbability identifies a significant gap between its estimate for the Under 2.5 goals scenario and the odds offered by the market. With odds of 3.20, the calculated EV reaches +49.9%.
This bet remains quite aggressive, however: the odds are high and the overall probabilities of the match do not paint a completely closed scenario. The model estimates the Over 2.5 at 53.1% and the BTTS at 56.3%.
This is therefore primarily a value bet, and not a bet presented as highly probable.
🇫🇷 Dijon – Pau
Prognosis: Dijon victory
Odds: 2.34
EV: +18.4%
Model score: 52/100
Confidence: 50.6%
Probable score: 2-1
The second option offers a different profile.
The model gives a 50.6% probability of a Dijon victory, compared to 24.7% for a draw and 24.7% for a Pau victory. With odds of 2.34, FootProbability achieves an expected value (EV) of +18.4%.
It is precisely this relationship between a probability greater than 50% and odds exceeding 2.00 that makes this match interesting.
The most likely score calculated is 2-1 for Dijon.
Compared to the first prediction, we are here with a less spectacular selection in terms of EV, but with a more balanced profile.
🇫🇮 VPS – Turku PS
Prognosis: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.01
EV: +14.1%
Model score: 54/100
Confidence: 50.8%
Probable score: 1-1
Our third selection returns to the goalscoring market.
FootProbability assigns VPS – Turku PS a model score of 54/100 and detects a positive EV of +14.1% on the Under 2.5 offered at 2.01.
The model estimates the Over 2.5 at only 43.2%, while the BTTS is at 47.1%. The probable score is 1-1.
So it is a less ambitious selection in terms of potential yield than Nõmme United – Tammeka, but which brings a complementary profile to our Top 3.
🔎 Today's Top 3 in summary
| Match | predictions | Odds | EV | Model Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United – Tammeka | Under 2.5 | 3,20 | +49,9 % | 57/100 |
| Dijon – Pau | Dijon victory | 2,34 | +18,4 % | 52/100 |
| VPS – Turku PS | Under 2.5 | 2,01 | +14,1 % | 54/100 |
🧠 Why doesn't FootProbability simply select the highest EV?
A high EV is interesting, but it is not sufficient to determine the quality of a prediction.
FootProbability seeks to compare several pieces of information: probability calculated by the model, actual odds available, EV, confidence level and overall signal quality.
This is also why the three selections presented in this article do not necessarily correspond to the three largest EVs detected across all matches.
Today, for example, Fiorentina – Benevento is also an interesting alternative with BTTS Yes at 2.20, an EV of +23.9% and a model score of 57/100.
📈 A day with lots of value bets
The volume is particularly high this August 14: 41 Value Bets were detected by the model.
This obviously does not mean that you have to play in every selection.
The goal of FootProbability is precisely to allow sorting opportunities and identifying potentially interesting discrepancies between the probabilities calculated by the model and the prices offered by the market.
A Value Bet represents an estimated positive mathematical expectation, not a guarantee that the bet will win.
⚽ Predictions for August 14, 2026
For today, our editorial selection is therefore:
🥇 Nõmme United – Tammeka : Under 2.5 @3,20
🥈 Dijon – Pau : Victoire Dijon @2,34
🥉 VPS – Turku PS : Under 2.5 @2,01
Three different profiles, with the same principle: to look for value in the odds rather than simply looking for the favorite in a match.
Probabilities and odds may change until kick-off. Find the latest analyses directly in the FootProbability Member Area.
FP Analyst — Trust the Numbers.
The predictions presented are based on a statistical model and are not a guarantee of results. Sports betting involves a risk of loss. 18+ — Gamble responsibly.