Saturday, September 5, 2026, offers a particularly busy schedule for football fans. The FootProbability model analyzed 150 matches to identify bets with the most interesting discrepancies between calculated probabilities and available odds.
Of all the matches analyzed, only 20 are currently classified as Value Bets. The average EV of these opportunities reaches +17.4%, while the average confidence of the model is 44.0%.
This relatively limited selection compared to the 150 available matches recalls an important principle of FootProbability: not all matches necessarily constitute a betting opportunity.
⭐ The main prediction for September 5: Botoșani – Sepsi
The best evaluation of the model concerns the Romanian meeting between FC Botoșani and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
Football prediction probability: under 2.5 goals
- Model score: 70/100
- Observed rating: 1,74
- Estimated EV: +19,5 %
- Confidence: 68,7 %
- Probable score: 0-0
With a score of 70/100, this match receives the highest rating of the day.
The model here favours a relatively closed scenario and detects above all an interesting gap between its estimated probability on the Over/Under market and the available odds.
This is currently the FootProbability Match of the Day.
🏆 FootProbability's Top 3 for September 5th
Three encounters stand out in particular in the model's ranking.
🥇 FC Botoșani – Sepsi
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Side : 1,74
EV : +19,5 %
Confidence: 68,7 %
Model score: 70/100
This is the selection that benefits from the best combination of model score, confidence and value detected today.
🥈 Puebla – Toluca
Heading to Mexico for the Liga MX match between Puebla and Toluca.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Side : 2,38
EV : +26,8 %
Confidence: 53,3 %
Model score: 68/100
Probable score: 1-1
The odds above 2.00 make this selection particularly attractive from a value perspective. The model estimates an EV of +26.8%, while maintaining a high rating of 68/100.
🥉 FC Kharkiv – Obolon’-Brovar
The third selection takes us to Ukraine.
Prediction: Both teams to score — Yes
Side : 2,40
EV : +35,3 %
Confidence: 56,3 %
Model score: 64/100
Probable score: 1-1
This is the highest EV of the Top 3 with +35,3 %.
The model therefore favours a scenario in which both teams find the back of the net.
📊 A Top 3 focused on value
The composition of the Top 3 on September 5th is interesting because no selection is based on a simple victory by a big favorite.
Two bets concern the number of goals and the third the BTTS market:
Botoșani – Sepsi: Under 2.5 @1.74
Puebla – Toluca: Under 2.5 @2.38
Kharkiv – Obolon: BTTS Yes @2.40
The average score of the system proposed by FootProbability reaches 67/100, for an average EV of +27.2%.
This configuration corresponds to the model's approach: to look for a difference between the estimated probability and that implicitly reflected by the odds rather than systematically selecting the team assumed to be the strongest.
⚽ Some Value Bets to Watch
Behind the Top 3, several other matches also stand out from today's analyses.
In South Africa, Chippa United – Milford FC receives a score of 60/100 on the Over 2.5 goals market, with odds of 2.45 and an EV of +28.8%.
The Bundesliga also features much bolder bets. Hoffenheim is priced at 2.89 on a win against Dortmund, with an EV of +32.0% and a model score of 55/100.
The model also detects significant value on Werder Bremen against RB Leipzig, with a Werder victory rated 4.20. This type of selection must, however, be interpreted correctly: a high EV does not mean that a bet is safe. A higher rating also reflects a lower probability of success.
The same is true in the Championship, where some home teams appear at high odds.
These situations perfectly illustrate the difference between favorite and value bet.
⭐ No favorites selected today
Another interesting piece of information for today: no match currently meets the criteria of the “Favorites of the day” block of FootProbability.
The model therefore does not seek to artificially display a selection in each category.
A strong favorite offered at odds that are too low may very well be of less statistical interest than another selection that benefits from a better relationship between probability and odds.
It is precisely for this reason that FootProbability distinguishes between probabilities, confidence, model score and Expected Value (EV).
🔎 150 matches analyzed, 20 Value Bets
The number of meetings scheduled for September 5th is significant:
150 matches analyzed
20 Value Bets detected
13 matches with a model score of 50/100 or more
Average EV: +17.4%
This means that the vast majority of matches do not pass the various filters required to be highlighted among the best opportunities.
This selectivity is essential: the goal is not to produce the largest possible number of predictions, but to identify situations in which the model data are of particular interest.
🎯 What can we learn from the predictions of September 5th?
The FC Botoșani – Sepsi Under 2.5 goals is the highest rated selection of the day with 70/100 and a confidence of 68.7%.
Puebla – Toluca in Under 2.5 offers significantly higher odds than 2.38, while Kharkiv – Obolon in BTTS Yes displays the highest EV of the Top 3 at +35.3%.
The day also features several outsiders with significant EVs, but which should naturally be considered riskier.
The probabilities and odds may change until the start of the matches. The analyzes available in the FootProbability Member Area allow you to consult up-to-date data and all matches covered by the model.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The decision to play always remains yours.
Sports betting involves the risk of loss. Gamble responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.