This Sunday, September 6, 2026, FootProbability once again scrutinizes a particularly rich program with 150 matches analyzed by our statistical model.
The day is distinguished by a significant number of opportunities: 64 Value Bets are currently detected, for an average EV of +18.0% and an average confidence of 45.7%.
But quantity does not mean certainty. The objective of FootProbability remains the same: to compare the probabilities calculated by the model with the available odds in order to identify the most interesting gaps.
⭐ Strong Match: Rosario Central – Newell’s Old Boys
The Match Fort of September 6 takes us to Argentina with the derby between Rosario Central and Newell’s Old Boys.
Prediction Foot Probability: BTTS Yes
Model score: 69/100
Odds: 2.37
EV: +33.6%
Confidence: 56.3%
Probable score: 1-1
The model therefore estimates that the scenario where both teams score has an interesting value compared to the observed odds.
With odds of 2.37 and an estimated EV of +33.6%, this match takes first place in the FootProbability ranking today.
However, this is a derby, a type of match that can be particularly hard-fought: the numbers are a statistical indication, not a guarantee of the result.
🏆 FootProbability's Top 3 for September 6th
Three matches received the best ratings for the model today.
🥇 Rosario Central – Newell’s Old Boys
Prediction: BTTS Yes
Side : 2,37
EV : +33,6 %
Confidence: 56,3 %
Model score: 69/100
Rosario Central – Newell’s takes first place thanks to the combination between its model score and the value detected on the BTTS market.
🥈 Kaizer Chiefs – Siwelele
Next stop, South Africa for the second selection.
Prediction: BTTS Yes
Side : 2,31
EV : +30,3 %
Confidence: 56,3 %
Model score: 69/100
Probable score: 1-1
This match obtained exactly the same model score as the Strong Match: 69/100.
The model once again identifies an opportunity in the market "Both teams to score", with odds greater than 2.00.
🥉 Servette FC – FC St-Gall
Third place goes to the Swiss championship.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Side : 2,81
EV : +43,3 %
Confidence: 51,1 %
Model score: 65/100
Probable score: 1-1
This selection has the highest EV of the Top 3, at +43.3%.
The odds of 2.81 however show why it is necessary to distinguish between statistical value and probability of success: a high EV does not mean that a bet is certain.
🧩 A 2 out of 3 system at 68/100
These three matches also constitute the 2 out of 3 system proposed by FootProbability.
The system's average score reached 68/100, with an average EV of +35.7%.
The three selections are:
Rosario Central – Newell’s: BTTS Yes @2.37
Kaizer Chiefs – Siwelele: BTTS Yes @2.31
Servette – St-Gall: Under 2.5 @2.81
The principle of the 2 out of 3 system allows you to retain a potential return when two of the three selections are correct, unlike a classic combination which requires the success of all predictions.
🛡️ Today's favorite: Molde vs. KFUM Oslo
September 6th also presents an interesting new feature compared to some days: the model validates a market favorite.
Molde – KFUM Oslo
Prediction: Molde win
Model probability: 54.8%
Odds: 1.31
FootProbability thus ranks Molde as the Favorite of the day.
This selection should not be confused with a Value Bet. The "Today's Favorites" section primarily seeks teams heavily backed by the market whose superiority is also confirmed by the model's probabilities.
Low odds like 1.31, however, imply limited potential returns. That's why FootProbability deliberately separates logical favorites from bets with a positive expected value.
💎 Several other interesting Value Bets
The Top 3 is not the only remarkable element of this day.
In Tunisia, ES Tunis – AS Marsa emerges with a BTTS Yes at 2.93, a model score of 64/100 and a particularly high EV of +65.0%.
Still in Tunisia, ES Sahel – Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores 62/100 on the BTTS Yes at 2.18, while ES Metlaoui – ES Hammam-Sousse scores 61/100 on the Over 2.5 at 2.91.
In Spain, Oviedo – Burgos also appears among the interesting matches with an Over 2.5 at 2.54, an EV of +31.7% and a model score of 61/100.
In Brazil, the model favors the Over 2.5 on Fluminense – Vasco da Gama, with odds of 2.13, an EV of +16.6% and a score of 59/100.
🇯🇵 Notable outsiders in Japan
The J1 League also presents several interesting situations.
The model notably predicts Fagiano Okayama will win against Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with a score of 57/100 and odds of 3.83.
Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia also appears on the 1X2 market, with a Nagoya win priced at 3.18 and a model score of 54/100.
These high odds should naturally be interpreted with caution. A high EV indicates that the odds appear higher than those estimated by the model; however, it does not automatically transform an outsider into a favorite.
📊 64 Value Bets out of 150 matches
The figures from September 6th show a very different day depending on the competitions:
150 matches analyzed
64 Value Bets detected
38 matches with a model score of 50/100 or higher
Average EV: +18.0%
Average Confidence: 45.7%
Nearly half of the analyzed matches therefore currently present a Value Bet according to the model's criteria.
This obviously doesn't mean you have to play 64 matches. The FootProbability score allows you to prioritize these opportunities by taking into account several parameters rather than just EV.
🎯 What can we learn from the predictions of September 6th?
Rosario Central – Newell’s Old Boys in BTTS Yes constitutes the Strong Match of this day with 69/100.
Kaizer Chiefs – Siwelele, also rated at 69/100, completes a Top 3 in which the BTTS market occupies an important place.
Servette – St-Gall in Under 2.5 closes the podium with 65/100 and presents the highest EV of the three selections at +43.3%.
Finally, Molde is the logical favorite of the day, a separate selection from the Value Bets and intended to identify a team whose market favorite status is also confirmed by the model.
Probabilities and odds may change until the start of matches. In the FootProbability Member Area, you will find all 150 analyzed matches and the latest model data.
FootProbability: probabilities above all.
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