Lionel Messi is already preparing for life after his playing career.
The Argentine star has reached an **agreement in principle to take control of CD Eldense**, a club currently playing in the Spanish second division. According to several Spanish media outlets and Reuters, the deal involves shares held by the Colombian group TH Soluciones Group. It still requires the completion of several legal steps, including due diligence and approval from Spain’s Higher Sports Council.
Beyond the Messi name, this move raises a particularly interesting question:
Why invest in a club like Eldense?
At FootProbability, we wanted to view this move just as we would a bet: not merely based on reputation, but by comparing risk, potential, and future value.
A club currently struggling on the sporting front
Eldense is not currently a sleeping giant of Spanish football.
The club has just returned to the second division and is off to a difficult start: **two points from four matches and no wins**, placing it in the lower reaches of the standings. Coach Claudio Barragán—who had actually masterminded the promotion—left his post after just four games.
The latest transfer window nevertheless demonstrates certain ambitions: 18 players were signed to strengthen the squad.
At first glance, then, it is not the most obvious sports investment.
And that is precisely what makes it interesting.
Eldense: a small club with growth potential
Eldense is based in Elda, in the province of Alicante, a city of approximately 55,000 inhabitants.
Its stadium, the Nuevo Pepico Amat, has a capacity of only around 5,800, and the club has about 3,500 season-ticket holders. Eldense has spent the majority of its history in the lower tiers of Spanish football and has never played in La Liga.
We are therefore a long way from the economic scale of FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, or even many second-division clubs.
But Messi's arrival could change the equation precisely.
His mere presence as owner can bring the club international exposure that would otherwise be difficult to achieve: new sponsors, commercial growth, social media reach, merchandising, and appeal to players.
Eldense's value could therefore rise without even waiting for a potential promotion to La Liga.
How much will Messi pay?
This is where you need to be careful.
The value of the agreement reached with Messi is not known.
L’Équipe reports that a previous deal with another investor had cited a valuation of around €12 million, but that transaction ultimately fell through. It would therefore be incorrect to present €12 million today as the price paid by Messi.
This figure nevertheless gives an idea of the economic scale we are talking about.
And that is where the case becomes fascinating.
The real jackpot would be La Liga.
Let us now consider Eldense as a multi-year investment.
Messi isn't just buying the club's current results.
Above all, he is buying a future possibility.
The goal is to stabilize Eldense in the second division, gradually increase its commercial value, and potentially reach La Liga one day.
We find exactly the same logic as in a probabilistic analysis:
Current value + future potential × probability of success.
Promotion is, of course, never guaranteed. However, if the investment leads to sufficient improvements in the club’s infrastructure, recruitment, appeal, and revenue, the likelihood of sporting progress may increase.
And with it, the economic value of the asset.
Football is increasingly attracting former players.
For that matter, investing in clubs is not entirely new to Messi.
Reuters reports that he has already acquired UE Cornellà this year, a club playing in the lower tiers of Spanish football. He is also set to receive a stake in Inter Miami once his playing contract ends.
However, Eldense would represent a further step: this time, it is a club playing in Spanish professional football.
The former player would thus begin to gradually build a genuine football investment portfolio.
Messi’s "value bet"?
At FootProbability, we use an essential concept on a daily basis: value.
A bet is not attractive simply because a team has a strong chance of winning. It becomes attractive when its actual probability appears higher than what its price—the odds—suggests.
Investing in a club can be viewed in much the same way.
Eldense is currently a small club with a poor league standing and modest facilities.
But Messi might consider that his future potential is greater than his current valuation.
And in that case, he wouldn't necessarily seek to buy a big club.
He is reportedly looking to buy a club with the potential to increase in value.
Our analysis
The potential arrival of Lionel Messi obviously won’t turn Eldense into an automatic contender for La Liga.
Money, fame, and investments increase the possibilities. They never guarantee sporting results.
But the operation is worth watching.
For if Messi succeeds in growing the club's revenue, enhancing its appeal, and gradually improving its sporting performance, Eldense could become a particularly interesting case study of the relationship between:
investment → squad value → performance → probability of promotion → club valuation.
And that is precisely what we love analyzing at FootProbability.
Messi has spent his career creating value on the pitch. Now, he might try to create it off the pitch.