FootProbability continues its daily analysis with another action-packed day. On this September 13, 2026, the model analyzed 150 matches and identified 58 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +17.7%, while the average confidence level rises to 52.4%.
Before looking at today’s opportunities, let’s review the results from September 12. It was a tough day for the main picks, yet it ended almost even, thanks to several winning bets at high odds.
September 12 roundup: a day of near-equilibrium
FootProbability has recorded **28 selections**, with **11 winners and 17 losers**. The success rate therefore stands at **39.3%**.
Among the best performances, V-Varen Nagasaki @3.43, Colwyn Bay @3.11, SK Beveren @2.80, Gornik Zabrze @2.75, Sepsi @2.57, Bolton @2.55 and Racing Santander @2.50went to the fore.
Nevertheless, the day was disappointing regarding the top-ranked picks. The "Strong Pick," **Atlante FC (@2.82)**, suffered a heavy **0–3 defeat against Pachuca**. FF Jaro (@3.30) and several other high-EV selections also failed to land.
With a theoretical stake of 1 unit on each selection, the final result is around -0.07 units, representing an ROI close to -0.25%. Despite a winning rate of only 39.3%, the high odds make it possible to finish virtually at the break-even point.
This also serves as a good illustration of the FootProbability philosophy: a "value bet" is not a guarantee of a win. The model looks for situations where the offered odds appear higher than the estimated probability. Performance must therefore be evaluated over a significant number of bets, rather than just a single day.
150 matches analyzed on September 13
For today’s slate, 150 matches are covered by FootProbability. The model identifies 58 Value Bets, compared to 28 the previous day. The average EV of these opportunities reaches +17.7%, with an average confidence level of 52.4%.
There is a significant number of "Value Bets," but that obviously does not mean you should play all 58 selections. The FootProbability score helps distinguish the most attractive opportunities from bets that require greater caution.
⭐ Strong Match: LDU de Quito – Deportivo Cuenca
The featured match for September 13 is the game between LDU Quito and Deportivo Cuenca. FootProbability selects Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88.
This selection achieves an excellent model score of 79/100, with 68.7% confidence and an EV of +29.1%. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-0.
It’s a different configuration from yesterday’s Match Fort. The rating is lower, but the confidence level and selection score are significantly higher.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability
The top spot logically goes to LDU Quito vs. Deportivo Cuenca: Under 2.5 @1.88. With a score of 79/100, +29.1% EV, and 68.7% confidence, this pick clearly dominates the day's rankings.
In second place, Getafe – Deportivo La Coruña: BTTS Yes @2.33 scores 65/100, with an EV of +30.9% and a confidence level of 56.2%.
The third pick is America de Cali vs. Deportivo Pasto: BTTS Yes @2.26. It also shows a rating of 65/100, with +29.5% EV and 57.3% confidence.
🧩 System 2 out of 3 for today
The top three selections also make up the **FootProbability 2-out-of-3 system**. Therefore, at least two of the three selections must be correct for one of the doubles bets to win.
The first choice is LDU de Quito – Deportivo Cuenca, Under 2.5 @1.88. The second is Getafe – Deportivo La Coruna, BTTS Yes @2.33. Finally, the third is America de Cali – Deportivo Pasto, BTTS Yes @2.26.
The set achieves an average score of 70/100 and an average EV of +29.9%. FootProbability indicates a suggested total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three double bets.
🛡️ Today's favorites
For those who prefer to follow market favorites rather than exclusively seeking out value bets, two teams currently stand out.
Kairat Almaty is the favorite against FK Tobol Kostanay at 1.39, with a model-based probability of 60.1%. Valur Reykjavik is also the favorite against Thor Akureyri at 1.50, with an estimated probability of 50.1%.
These selections follow a different logic than "Value Bets": they represent market favorites confirmed by the model, without requiring the detection of significant positive value.
💎 Other value bets to watch
Beyond the top 3, several selections show interesting indicators. Notably, **Benfica – Gil Vicente, BTTS Yes @2.46** posts an **EV of +38.3%** and a score of 60/100.
In Argentina, Tigre vs. Rosario Central (Over 2.5 goals @2.67) reaches +41.9% EV with a score of 55/100.
You can also keep an eye on Sturm Graz – LASK Linz, Under 2.5 @2.33, rated 60/100 with +25.6% EV.
Finally, Jeunesse Sportive Omrane – ES Metlaoui (Over 2.5 goals @2.75) offers an EV of +39.7%, but its score of 54/100 suggests exercising greater caution.
A day to follow with discipline
After a day on September 12th that saw results virtually break even—despite a success rate of only 39.3%—FootProbability returns today with **150 matches analyzed and 58 Value Bets**.
The day's top pick remains **LDU Quito vs. Deportivo Cuenca, Under 2.5 @1.88**, with a score of **79/100**. The top 3 also features an interesting setup, including two "Both Teams to Score – Yes" selections with odds above 2.25.
As always, FootProbability does not aim to predict every result perfectly. The goal is to identify interesting discrepancies between estimated probabilities and available odds, and then to evaluate performance over time.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de manière responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.