FootProbability approaches this September 14, 2026, with a more selective list. The model has analyzed 52 matches and identified 21 Value Bets, with an average EV of +18.6% and an average confidence level of 54.1%. Only six matches currently achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher.
This new matchday follows a positive Sunday for the model. The "Strong Pick" for September 13th was successful, and the Top 3 finished with two correct selections out of three.
Results for September 13: 21 winners and a positive day.
Out of the **45 tracked selections**, FootProbability finished with **21 winning and 24 losing bets**, representing a **46.7% success rate**. Despite a success rate below 50%, the odds secured allowed the day to end in profit.
With a theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the total return reaches approximately 49.21 units from 45 units wagered. This represents a profit of around +4.21 units and an ROI of nearly +9.4% for the day.
Several attractive odds contributed to this result. Winning bets included, notably, Heerenveen – Telstar Under 2.5 @2.93, Simba – Be Forward Wanderers BTTS Yes @2.72, Lecce @2.70, AF Elbasani @2.70, Milford FC Over 2.5 @2.62, and Nordsjaelland – Aarhus Under 2.5 @2.62.
This result highlights an important principle of FootProbability: the percentage of winning bets is not enough to measure performance. The odds at which the selections are placed also matter.
⭐ The "Strong Match" (rated 79/100) came in.
Le principal signal du 13 septembre était LDU de Quito – Deportivo Cuenca : Under 2,5 @1,88. La rencontre s’est terminée 1-1, ce qui valide le Match Fort. ✅
This is an interesting result, given that this selection had achieved a model score of 79/100—the best score of the day.
Le Top 3 termine également à 2 bonnes sélections sur 3. LDU de Quito – Deportivo Cuenca Under 2,5 @1,88 ✅ et Silkeborg – Viborg Under 2,5 @2,38 ✅ passent, tandis que NEOM – Al-Fateh Under 2,5 @2,11 ❌ échoue avec une victoire 4-2 de NEOM.
A good day, then, but one that does not change our approach: model performance must always be judged over the long term and across a significant number of selections.
52 matches analyzed on September 14
The selection is significantly smaller today. FootProbability covers 52 matches, compared to 150 on previous matchdays. The model identifies 21 Value Bets, of which only 6 currently show a score of 50/100 or higher.
The average EV reaches **+18.6%** and the average confidence level **54.1%**. The goal remains the same: rather than seeking to place a large number of bets, the aim is to identify the most attractive discrepancies between calculated probabilities and available odds.
⭐ Strong Match: Como – Parma
The featured match for September 14 takes us to Serie A with Como vs. Parma. FootProbability selects BTTS – Yes at odds of 2.36.
The bet has a model score of 64/100, an EV of +31.3%, and a confidence level of 55.6%. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1.
The odds exceeding 2.00 make this selection attractive, but the score of 64/100 remains significantly lower than the 79/100 achieved yesterday by LDU Quito. It is therefore important to keep this difference in confidence levels in mind.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability
Como – Parma: BTTS Yes @2.36 takes the top spot with 64/100, +31.3% EV, and 55.6% confidence.
Right behind, Ludogorets – Septemvri Sofia: Under 2.5 @2.23 also scores 64/100, with an EV of +25.0% and a slightly higher confidence level of 56.0%.
Third place goes to Banfield – Barracas Central: BTTS Yes @2.25, with a score of 61/100, an EV of +26.6%, and 56.3% confidence.
The top three picks therefore present an interesting feature today: all three odds fall between 2.23 and 2.36, with no selections at very low odds.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: three very closely related selections
The three Top 3 selections also make up the FootProbability 2-out-of-3 system: Como vs. Parma (BTTS Yes @2.36), Ludogorets vs. Septemvri Sofia (Under 2.5 @2.23), and Banfield vs. Barracas Central (BTTS Yes @2.25).
The system shows an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +27.6%. The suggested stake is €3 to €5 in total, distributed across the three doubles.
Following yesterday’s 2-out-of-3 success in the Top 3, this new trio will be particularly interesting to track in the historical data.
💎 Other Value Bets to Watch
Two other selections are closing in on the Top 3. Shakhtar Donetsk – Chornomorets: BTTS Yes @2.52 scores 60/100 with a particularly high EV of +41.6%.
For its part, **Panionios – Apollon Pontou: BTTS Yes @2.65** shows a rating of **59/100** and an EV of **+47.8%**. The odds are higher, but this naturally comes with greater uncertainty.
Also worth noting is **HNK Gorica vs. NK Varazdin: Gorica to win @3.20**. The EV reaches **+52.5%**, but the model score is only **47/100** and the selection is rated "Caution." This is a good example of high EV that should not be confused with high confidence.
🛡️ Today's favorites
Among the favorites identified by the model, Bodo/Glimt leads the way against Sandefjord with odds of 1.14 and a model-calculated probability of 63.5%.
Vikingur Reykjavik @1.18 against Keflavik has a probability of 63.1%, while Djurgardens IF @1.54 against Gais rounds out the selection with a probability of 54.9%.
These favorites are presented separately from the Value Bets. A team may be considered a favorite by the market—and confirmed as such by the model—without necessarily representing the best opportunity in terms of value.
A more focused selection for September 14th.
Following a positive September 13th—highlighted by a winning "Strong Match" pick on LDU Quito and a 2-out-of-3 success rate in the Top 3—FootProbability heads into this new matchday with just 21 value bets identified across 52 analyzed fixtures.
The BTTS Yes of Como – Parma @2.36 takes the lead with 64/100, followed very closely by Ludogorets – Septemvri Sofia and Banfield – Barracas Central. Two other selections also exceed 59/100: Shakhtar – Chornomorets and Panionios – Apollon Pontou.
As always, the goal is not to place a bet on every detected value bet. The model score, confidence, EV, and odds must be analyzed together, and results must be evaluated over the long term.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de manière responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.