FootProbability continues its analysis on this September 15, 2026, with a quieter day. The model currently covers 40 matches and identifies 13 Value Bets, with an average EV of +10.1% and an average confidence level of 52.9%.
But the most important figure lies elsewhere: no national team currently achieves a benchmark score of 50/100 or higher. Of the 40 matches analyzed, all 40 are currently ranked below this threshold.
Rather than artificially seeking out a high-conviction selection, FootProbability accepts a matchday where the signals are weaker. That is also the role of the model: to identify opportunities when they exist, but also to signal when caution is required.
September 14th Roundup: The "Strong Match" pick wins, but it was a tough day.
The current record for September 14 is negative. Out of the **9 selections in the history**, **2 were winners and 7 were losers**, representing a **success rate of 22.2%**.
The main highlight comes from the featured match between Como and Parma: BTTS – Yes. Como won 2–1, securing the bet since both teams scored. The odds recorded in the history are 2.14, compared to 2.36 at the time of initial publication.
The other winning pick is Radomiak Radom – Piast Gliwice: Under 2.5 @2.18, with a final score of 0-2.
On the other hand, Panionios – Apollon Pontou BTTS Yes @2.51, HNK Gorica @3.25, Dynamo Kyiv – Epitsentr Under 2.5 @2.25, Mladost DG @2.68, Shabab Al Ahli – Tractor BTTS Yes @1.93, Inter Turku – VPS BTTS Yes @1.92 and Universitatea Cluj – Oţelul BTTS Yes @1.80 are losers.
With an identical theoretical stake of 1 unit on these 9 selections, the result is 4.32 units returned for 9 wagered, or approximately -4.68 units.
However, an important clarification must be made: this refers to the record of the 9 selections currently listed in the history, and not necessarily all the selections offered throughout the day.
⭐ The Como vs. Parma marquee match is confirmed.
Malgré cette journée difficile, la sélection principale de FootProbability a tenu son rôle. Le modèle avait retenu BTTS Oui sur Como – Parma, et le score final de 2-1 valide le pari. ✅
This also serves as a good illustration of the value of distinguishing between different levels of selection. A poor overall day does not prevent a main selection from succeeding, just as a winning "Strong Match" is not enough to turn a negative day into a successful performance.
FootProbability will therefore continue to display both winning and losing results. Performance must be judged over the long term, not based on a single match or a single day.
40 matches analyzed on September 15
Today, the volume is lower, with 40 matches analyzed and only 13 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +10.1%, while average confidence is 52.9%.
Above all, no match currently exceeds 50/100. This is quite different from recent rounds and a signal we need to take into account.
A "value bet" remains a situation where the model detects a discrepancy between its estimated probability and the odds offered. It does not automatically imply that the bet carries a high level of confidence.
⭐ Strong Match: Super Nova – Riga
The Strong Match of September 15 is Super Nova – Riga: BTTS Yes @1.69.
The selection shows a confidence level of 61.3%, but its EV remains relatively low at +3.6%. Its model score is only 49/100, just below our 50-point threshold. The calculated probable score is 1-1.
This is therefore a "Strong Match" to be approached with more caution than some of the key picks from previous days. The confidence level is appealing, but the edge identified relative to the odds remains moderate.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability
Super Nova – Riga: BTTS Yes @1.69 takes the top spot with a score of 49/100, +3.6% EV, and 61.3% confidence.
The second pick is The New Saints – Flint Town United: BTTS Yes @2.03. It scores 47/100, with an EV of +12.9% and a confidence level of 55.6%.
Finally, Ratchaburi – Shanghai SIPG: Ratchaburi victory @2.80 completes the Top 3. Its score is 46/100, with +30.2% EV and 46.5% confidence.
This third selection demonstrates once again why EV should not be analyzed in isolation. Ratchaburi has the best EV of the top three, but also the lowest confidence.
🧩 A "2-out-of-3" system to play with caution
The three Top 3 picks also make up the day's **2-out-of-3 system bet**: Super Nova vs. Riga (BTTS: Yes) @1.69, The New Saints vs. Flint Town (BTTS: Yes) @2.03, and Ratchaburi @2.80.
The system shows an average score of just 47/100, for an average EV of +15.6%. The stake suggested by the tool is €3 to €5 in total across the three double bets.
Given the relatively low scores today, this system involves greater uncertainty than those proposed on days when several selections exceeded 60 or 70/100.
💎 The other value bets of the day
Among other opportunities, America de Cali – Deportivo Pasto: BTTS Yes @2.10 shows a rating of 45/100, an EV of +11.5%, and a probable score of 1-1.
In La Liga, **Alavés vs. Valencia: BTTS Yes @1.94** also scores **45/100**, with an EV of **+9.8%**.
Finally, Jezero – Bokelj: Jezero win @2.59 offers an EV of +17.4%, but a score of only 37/100. Here again, the odds and EV might catch the eye, but the model score advises caution.
🛡️ Today's favorites
Three market favorites are currently confirmed by the model. America de Cali @1.30 against Deportivo Pasto leads the way with a model probability of 58.8%.
Barry Town @1.12 against Ammanford AFC shows a probability of 58.2%, while Universidad Católica @1.36 against Orense SC rounds out the trio with a model probability of 57.5%.
As always, these favorites are presented separately from the Value Bets. Low odds do not necessarily mean there is value in betting on them.
A day when FootProbability recommends caution.
September 15 therefore presents a different profile. Only 13 value bets were detected across 40 analyzed matches, and—most notably—no selection reached a score of 50/100.
Rather than framing every matchday as exceptional, FootProbability prefers to let the data speak for itself. Today, the data clearly indicates that opportunities are weaker and a more cautious approach is warranted.
The top pick—Super Nova vs. Riga: BTTS Yes @1.69—remains the model's primary selection with 61.3% confidence, though its score of 49/100 and EV of just +3.6% should be taken into account.
Following a big win yesterday with the Como vs. Parma match, the tracking continues. Both winning and losing results will be factored into the model's overall performance.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de manière responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.