After two difficult days for the tracked selections, FootProbability is continuing its approach without changing course: analyzing probabilities, seeking value, and publishing results without hiding losing bets. This philosophy aligns with the site’s current positioning, which prioritizes selections with positive expected value over intuition.
On this September 16, 2026, the day’s outlook shifts significantly. The model analyzes 36 matches and identifies 10 Value Bets. The average EV reaches +34.5%, while average confidence stands at 48.9%. Notably, 9 matches now achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher, whereas none reached this threshold yesterday.
Update for September 15: another difficult day
Transparency remains essential. Out of the **13 selections tracked in the September 15th record**, FootProbability recorded **4 winners and 9 losers**, representing a success rate of **30.8%**.
The four winning selections are Beitar Jerusalem – Maccabi Petah Tikva, BTTS Yes @1.79, Ironi Tiberias – Hapoel Katamon, Over 2.5 @2.10, Korona Kielce – Gornik Zabrze, Under 2.5 @1.97, and Barry Town – Ammanford AFC, BTTS Yes @2.02.
With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the four winning bets return **7.88 units from a total stake of 13 units**. The result is therefore **-5.12 units**, representing an ROI of approximately **-39.4%** across these 13 selections.
It is a bad day, and there is no reason to portray it otherwise. A value bet represents a statistical advantage estimated at the time of analysis. It never guarantees the outcome of a match.
❌ The Super Nova vs. Riga match is not being broadcast.
The featured match on September 15th was Super Nova vs. Riga: BTTS Yes @1.69. Riga ultimately won 1–0, causing the selection to lose.
The top 3 picks also finished with a record of **1 winning selection out of 3**. The Beitar Jerusalem vs. Maccabi Petah Tikva "Both Teams to Score – Yes" bet at 1.79 won thanks to the 3–1 scoreline, whereas the BTTS bets for Super Nova vs. Riga and Holywell vs. Colwyn Bay did not come in.
Following the difficulties already encountered on September 14, these results serve as a reminder of why FootProbability’s performance should be evaluated over a sufficiently long period, rather than based on a handful of matches.
📊 A different profile for September 16
Today, only 10 Value Bets are detected across 36 matches. However, their average EV reaches +34.5%.
Another notable development: **9 games have a score of 50/100 or higher**. Yesterday, the count was zero.
This obviously does not mean that the day will be a winning one. However, the indicators enable the model to identify several higher-ranked selections.
⭐ Big Match: ES Zarzis – US Monastirienne
THE Match Fort du 16 septembre est ES Zarzis – US Monastirienne : BTTS Oui @2,27.
The selection achieves a model score of 62/100, with an EV of +27.7% and a confidence level of 56.2%. The probable score calculated by FootProbability is 1-1.
After yesterday’s "Strong Match" rating of just 49/100, today we have a main selection rated above 60/100.
However, the odds of **2.27** remain significant: the model detects value, but the scenario is far from a certainty.
🏆 FootProbability’s Top 3 for September 16
The top spot logically goes to ES Zarzis – US Monastirienne: BTTS Yes @2.27, with a score of 62/100, +27.7% EV, and 56.2% confidence.
In second place, Sloga Doboj – Borac Banja Luka: BTTS Yes @2.41 scores 60/100. Its EV reaches +35.7% with a confidence level of 56.3%.
Finally, **Al-Nahda vs. Al Taawon: Al-Nahda win @3.50** rounds out the top three. The projected EV is very high at **+76.2%**, but its score is only **48/100** and its confidence level is **50.3%**.
This third selection therefore calls for greater caution. A very high EV should never be confused with a high probability of winning.
🧩 A particularly interesting "2-out-of-3" system to keep an eye on.
Today's **2-out-of-3** system stands apart from the main Top 3 and shows higher model scores.
The first pick is Omonia Nicosia – Celta Vigo: Double Chance 1X @1.75. It scores 69/100, with a confidence level of 72.6% and an EV of +27.1%.
The second pick is Anderlecht vs. Lyon: Under 2.5 @2.22, with a score of 67/100, 60.9% confidence, and an EV of +35.3%.
Finally, Olympiakos – Jagiellonia: Under 2.5 @2.18 scores 66/100, with 59.6% confidence and +29.9% EV.
The overall result thus achieves an average score of 67/100 and an average EV of +30.8%.
This is one of the most interesting elements to follow right now, bearing in mind that a "2-out-of-3" system requires at least two correct selections to yield a return.
💎 Other high-EV value bets
Several other selections show significant discrepancies between the probability calculated by the model and the available odds.
Viettel – Melbourne Victory: Viettel win @3.11 shows an EV of +38.2%, but a score of only 45/100.
In Spain, **Levante – Athletic Club: Levante win @3.40** reaches **+62.0% EV** with a score of 47/100.
Finally, Jeonbuk Motors – Kashiwa Reysol: Jeonbuk win @3.10 offers an EV of +48.1%, again with a score of 47/100.
These examples clearly illustrate the difference between value and confidence: odds may appear undervalued according to the model without the probability of winning being particularly high.
🛡️ Only one confirmed favorite today
Unlike some days when several favorites stand out, FootProbability shows only one today: Chico against Alianza Valledupar.
Chico's victory is proposed at 1.80, with a model probability of 55.5%.
The small number of confirmed favorites is also informative: the model does not attempt to artificially populate this category.
Can September 16th pave the way for a rebound?
Today’s data is more encouraging than yesterday’s: 9 matches scoring 50/100 or higher, one "Strong Match" at 62/100, and—most notably—a "2-out-of-3" system with an average of 67/100.
But after two difficult days, the right approach is precisely not to turn these improved indicators into a promise of results.
FootProbability will therefore continue to measure what actually happens on the pitch. If national teams win, they will be counted; if they lose, they will be too.
It is by accumulating these results that we will be able to measure the quality of the model and continue to improve it.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de manière responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.