After several difficult days across all the tracked selections, FootProbability continues its work with the same approach: publishing model data, recording both winning and losing results, and avoiding forced selections when the criteria are not met.
On this September 17, 2026, the model analyzes 28 matches and identifies 9 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +18.8%, and the average confidence level is 53.5%. Eight matches currently have a model score of 50/100 or higher.
Results for September 16: 3 winners out of 11 followed selections.
Overall, September 16th was an unsuccessful day. Out of the 11 selections currently in the history, FootProbability recorded 3 winners and 8 losers, representing a success rate of 27.3%.
The three winning picks are Jeonbuk Motors vs. Kashiwa Reysol @3.10, with a 2–1 win; Sloga Doboj vs. Borac Banja Luka Over 2.5 @2.12, successful with a 1–2 scoreline; and Al-Rayyan vs. Al Faisaly BTTS Yes @1.84, featuring a spectacular 4–3 result.
With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit on each of the 11 selections, the winning bets return **7.06 units**. The net result is therefore **-3.94 units**, representing an ROI of approximately **-35.8%**.
The recent run of results remains challenging, and we present it exactly as it stands. A "Value Bet" represents a statistical advantage estimated by the model at the time of analysis; it never constitutes a guarantee of the outcome.
✅ The "Strong Match" pick published on September 16th is a winner.
However, one point requires an important distinction.
THE Match Fort publié hier était ES Zarzis – US Monastirienne : BTTS Oui @2,27. Le match s’est terminé 1-2, avec un but de chaque équipe : le Match Fort publié est donc gagnant ✅.
The history now displays this match with a different selection—an ES Zarzis win at odds of 2.37—which is a losing bet. It is therefore necessary to distinguish between the selection currently recorded in the tracker and the **"Strong Match" actually presented to readers at the time of publication**.
This evolution in selections and odds is one of the factors we continue to monitor in order to improve the consistency between published predictions and their track record.
📊 28 matches analyzed on September 17
The volume is lower today: 28 matches analyzed, resulting in 9 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +18.8%, with an average confidence level of 53.5%.
The model also includes 8 matches with a score of 50/100 or higher, compared to 20 matches classified in the other score levels.
This concentration makes it possible to focus on a limited number of opportunities rather than spreading one's choices too thin.
⭐ Strong Match: Orlando Pirates – Durban City
The Highlight Match on September 17 is Orlando Pirates – Durban City: BTTS Yes @2.50.
The bet receives a model score of 60/100, with an EV of +40.7% and a confidence level of 56.3%. The probable score calculated by FootProbability is 1-1.
The EV is particularly high, but it should not be interpreted as a 40.7% probability of success. It represents the value discrepancy estimated by the model relative to the available odds.
With odds of **2.50**, this selection remains subject to significant uncertainty, despite ranking as the top opportunity of the day.
🏆 FootProbability Top 3 for September 17
The "Strong Match" also takes the top spot in the Top 3. Orlando Pirates – Durban City: BTTS Yes @2.50 shows a score of 60/100, +40.7% EV, and 56.3% confidence.
The second pick is Malaga vs. Villarreal: Under 2.5 goals @2.29. It scores 59/100, with an EV of +24.6% and a confidence level of 54.4%.
Rounding out the top 3 is US Biskra – CR Belouizdad: BTTS Yes @2.11. The model assigns it a score of 53/100, an EV of +18.5%, and a confidence level of 56.2%.
The three selections thus show relatively similar scores, ranging from 53 to 60/100.
🧩 The 2-out-of-3 system outperforms the Top 3 in terms of score.
As was the case yesterday, the **2-out-of-3** system does not exactly replicate the top three selections from the Top 3.
The first selection is Levski Sofia – Red Bull Salzburg: Under 2.5 @2.20. She obtains 65/100, with a confidence of 58.9% and an EV of +29.6%.
The second pick is Real Sociedad vs. Bournemouth: Under 2.5 @2.10, with a score of 62/100, 60.1% confidence, and an EV of +26.3%.
The third is the Top Pick **Orlando Pirates vs. Durban City: BTTS Yes @2.50**, with a score of 60/100 and +40.7% EV.
The system thus achieves an average score of 62/100 and an average EV of +32.2%. The stake suggested by the tool is €3 to €5 in total, distributed across the three doubles.
As always, a 2-out-of-3 system requires at least two correct selections for a double to be a winner.
💎 Other value bets to watch
Several other encounters stand out in the analyses.
Machida Zelvia – Svay Rieng: BTTS Yes @2.04 scores exactly 50/100, with an EV of +14.8%.
Stade Tunisien – Club Africain: Stade Tunisien win @3.05 presents a much higher EV of +42.7%, but its model score remains at 46/100.
In La Liga, Real Betis vs. Getafe: Over 2.5 goals @2.15 scores 45/100 with an EV of +14.7%.
These examples serve as a further reminder of the difference between EV, confidence, and model score. High EV can indicate odds deemed attractive without necessarily making the bet a highly probable selection.
🛡️ No clear-cut favorite today
Another notable feature of the day: no market favorite meets the criteria defined by FootProbability.
The section dedicated to favorites therefore remains empty and clearly displays: "FootProbability does not force any selection."
This is an important principle of our methodology. The presence of a section on the site does not mean it must necessarily contain a bet every day.
When no favorite meets the model's criteria, no favorite is proposed.
A more compact day for FootProbability
After a difficult September 16th across all tracked bets, the featured pick—ES Zarzis vs. US Monastirienne: BTTS Yes @2.27—nonetheless delivered a win, with a final score of 1–2.
For this **September 17th**, FootProbability is narrowing down the opportunities: **9 value bets across 28 matches**, with eight fixtures rated at 50/100 or higher and no artificially selected favorites.
The featured match between Orlando Pirates and Durban City (BTTS – Yes @2.50) will be particularly interesting to follow, as will the "2-out-of-3" system, which achieves an average score of 62/100.
However, recent results suggest maintaining the same discipline: the model’s indicators serve to measure an opportunity, not to promise the outcome of a match.
Both winners and losers will continue to be included in the tracking in order to evaluate FootProbability over a sufficiently long period.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de manière responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.