FootProbability continues its daily analysis of football matches. Following a successful day on September 17, the model returns today with a much larger slate of games. On this September 18, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 70 matches and identifies 23 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +16.8%, and the average confidence level reaches 53.8%. In total, 9 matches achieve a FootProbability score of 50/100 or higher.
Results of the September 17 predictions
The day of September 17th ended with a positive outcome. Out of the **5 selections with a final result**, FootProbability recorded **3 winning and 2 losing predictions**, representing a success rate of **60%**. Another selection—Stade Tunisien vs. Club Africain—was marked as "Void" and is therefore excluded from this calculation.
The three winning bets are Internacional de Bogota vs. Atletico Nacional – BTTS Yes @1.82 (confirmed by a 2–3 scoreline), FC Astana to win @2.55 against Kairat Almaty (final score 1–0), and Témouchent to win @3.00 against JS Kabylie (also 1–0).
With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the five chosen bets represent a total stake of 5 units. The three winning bets yield a return of 7.37 units. The result is therefore +2.37 units, representing a theoretical ROI of +47.4%.
This result allows the model to return to a positive day after several difficult sessions. However, it remains important to analyze performance over a longer period. A single day—whether positive or negative—is not sufficient to evaluate the model's overall performance.
The key match on September 17 was lost.
The "Strong Match" published yesterday was **Orlando Pirates vs. Durban City – BTTS Yes @2.50**. The match ended **2–0**. Durban City did not score, so the BTTS Yes prediction was unsuccessful.
The final record also shows a prediction of **Over 2.5 goals @2.08** for this match. This bet also lost, as there were only two goals in the game. The overall results for September 17th remain positive, but the **"Strong Pick" did not win**.
70 matches analyzed on September 18
Today's schedule is much more substantial. FootProbability covers 70 matches, featuring 23 Value Bets, an average EV of +16.8%, and an average confidence level of 53.8%. The model also identifies 9 matches with a score of 50/100 or higher.
There is a high number of value bets today, but not all selections are equally attractive. A value bet simply indicates that the model has detected a discrepancy between its estimated probability and the available odds; it never guarantees a winning prediction.
Strong match: Ammanford AFC – Penybont
The featured match for September 18 is the game between Ammanford AFC and Penybont. The selected prediction is BTTS Yes @2.33. It has a FootProbability score of 69/100, with an EV of +32.3% and a confidence level of 56.8%. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1.
With a score of 69/100, this selection holds the highest FootProbability score of the day. The model identifies a significant discrepancy between its estimated probability of "Both Teams to Score – Yes" and the odds offered. However, the 69/100 figure is a selection score; it does not mean the bet has a 69% chance of winning.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 18
The top 3 selections currently share a very consistent profile: all three are for the **BTTS Yes** market, and all three odds are above 2.00.
The first pick is Ammanford AFC – Penybont with BTTS Yes @2.33. It has a score of 69/100, an EV of +32.3%, and a confidence level of 56.8%. The second pick is MC Alger – MB Rouisset with BTTS Yes @2.55, with a score of 60/100, an EV of +43.5%, and a confidence level of 56.3%. Finally, FC Noah – Van with BTTS Yes @2.41 rounds out the top 3 with a score of 60/100, an EV of +35.6%, and a confidence level of 56.3%.
MC Alger – MB Rouisset and FC Noah – Van therefore have the same score and the same confidence. The Algerian match stands out with a higher EV, at +43,5 %.
Today's 2-out-of-3 system bet
Today, the "2-out-of-3" system features exactly the same selections as the "Top 3." It consists of Ammanford AFC – Penybont (BTTS Yes) @2.33, MC Alger – MB Rouisset (BTTS Yes) @2.55, and FC Noah – Van (BTTS Yes) @2.41.
The system shows an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +37.1%. The suggested stake is between €3 and €5 in total, to be distributed across the three doubles.
This setup is interesting to follow because the Top 3 and the "2-out-of-3" system are perfectly aligned. To secure at least one winning pair in this system, two of the three predictions must be correct.
Other value bets to follow
Other value bets also exceed the 50/100 threshold. Rodez vs. Nancy (Under 2.5 goals @1.94) scores 59/100 with an EV of +14.8%. Haverfordwest County vs. Holywell (BTTS: Yes @1.67) reaches 56/100 with an EV of +8.1%.
In Algeria, JS El Biar – JS Saoura (Over 2.5 @2.59) scores 54/100 with an EV of +35.7%. Vllaznia Shkodër – Teuta Durrës (Over 2.5 @2.31) reaches 51/100 and an EV of +21.2%.
Two other matches score exactly 50/100. These are **Chornomorets vs. Obolon-Brovar (Over 2.5 goals @2.52)**, which shows an EV of +28.8%, and **Rapid vs. Arges Pitesti (BTTS – Yes @2.05)**, with an EV of +15.3%.
Two favorites confirmed by the model
The favorites section also features two selections today. Penybont is the favorite against Ammanford AFC, with odds of 1.12 and a model-predicted win probability of 55.9%. Wisla Krakow is the favorite against Slask Wroclaw, with odds of 1.63 and a model probability of 51.7%.
It is important to distinguish between a favorite and a value bet. A favorite is a team considered more likely to win, whereas a value bet depends on the difference between the probability calculated by the model and the odds offered.
High EV does not mean a sure bet.
Certain selections clearly demonstrate why it is necessary to look at multiple indicators. Rudes vs. NK Slaven Belupo, for example, shows a win for Rudes at odds of 3.40 with an EV of +50.3%. Yet, its FootProbability score is only 45/100, and the selection is classified in the "Caution" category.
A high EV indicates an attractive theoretical value according to the model. It does not mean the outcome is more certain. Therefore, the FootProbability score, confidence, EV, and odds must be analyzed together.
Conclusion
September 17 concludes with 3 winning predictions out of 5 settled bets, a success rate of 60%. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the result stands at +2.37 units and a +47.4% ROI. However, the featured match between Orlando Pirates and Durban City was a loss.
For **September 18, 2026**, FootProbability analyzes **70 matches** and identifies **23 Value Bets**. The Top Pick is **Ammanford AFC vs. Penybont (BTTS: Yes @2.33)**, with a score of **69/100**. The Top 3 and the 2-out-of-3 system consist of the same three selections today.
The results will be added to the history to continue measuring the model’s performance over time. The objective remains the same: to analyze probabilities, identify value discrepancies, and publish all results, whether winning or losing.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting involves risks. Gamble responsibly.