As is the case every Saturday, the football schedule is particularly packed. Today, FootProbability is analyzing **200 matches** across numerous leagues and competitions. The model identifies **39 Value Bets**, with an **average EV of +15.1%** and an **average confidence level of 52.6%**. Among the matches analyzed, **8 selections have achieved a FootProbability score of 50/100 or higher**.
The day features several interesting selections. The "Strong Match" scores 76/100, and the 2-out-of-3 system has an average score of 71/100. The Top 3 also consists of three selections with odds higher than 2.00. We will now look at the key data from the model for this Saturday, September 19.
Results of the September 18 predictions
The day of September 18 concludes with **26 Value Bets with a final result**. The record stands at **10 winning picks and 16 losing picks**. The success rate is therefore **38.5%**.
Several selections with attractive odds were winning bets. Brentford to beat Chelsea @2.70 (final score 3-0). Monza to beat Sassuolo @2.87 (score 2-1). Okzhetpes to beat Zhenys @2.20 (score 3-1). The Bucaramanga vs. Independiente Medellin match also saw the Over 2.5 @2.03 bet land, with a final score of 2-2.
Other markets were winners. Aktobe – Ulytau BTTS Yes @1.83, Omonia 29is Maiou – AEK Larnaca BTTS Yes @1.84, Gent – Standard Liège Over 2.5 @1.93, Worcester City – Stratford Town Over 2.5 @2.01 and Águilas Doradas – Deportivo Pereira BTTS Yes @2.10are among the positive results.
With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the 26 bets represent a total wager of 26 units. The winning bets yield a return of **21.63 units**. The day's result is therefore **-4.37 units**, representing a **theoretical ROI of -16.8%**.
September 18th thus ends in negative territory, following the positive result of September 17th. These fluctuations demonstrate why performance must be analyzed over a longer period. A single day is not sufficient to evaluate the model's overall performance.
A high EV does not guarantee a result.
September 18th also provides an interesting example regarding EV. The **Rudes vs. NK Slaven Belupo** match offered a bet on a Rudes win at odds of 3.50, with an EV of **+54.7%**. The match ended 2–2, and the bet was lost.
MC Alger – MB Rouisset BTTS Yes @2.55 was also among the key selections. The match ended 2–0. The BTTS Yes prediction therefore lost.
These results highlight the role of EV in FootProbability. A high EV indicates that the model detects theoretical value in the odds; it does not mean the outcome is certain. The FootProbability score, confidence, EV, and odds should always be analyzed together.
200 matches analyzed this Saturday, September 19
Saturdays naturally feature a large number of football matches. It is therefore no surprise to find 200 matches analyzed by FootProbability today. The FA Cup, for instance, accounts for 77 matches within the data currently covered by the model.
Out of the 200 matches, FootProbability identifies **39 Value Bets**. Eight selections achieve a score of 50/100 or higher. The aim is not to treat all 39 Value Bets as equivalent; the model’s score helps highlight the selections with the best indicators.
Strong match: Kristiansund BK – Rosenborg
The Top Pick for September 19 is Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg. The model selects the Double Chance 1X (Kristiansund or draw) at odds of 2.59. This selection has a FootProbability score of 76/100, an EV of +88.3%, and a confidence level of 72.7%.
The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1. This projection aligns with the Double Chance 1X selection. The model therefore considers that the offered odds differ significantly from its own estimate.
With a score of **76/100**, Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg holds the highest FootProbability rating of the day. The **72.7%** confidence level also exceeds the average confidence for the day's Value Bets. However, the +88.3% EV remains a theoretical figure and does not guarantee the match result.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 19
The Top 3 kicks off with Kristiansund BK – Rosenborg, Double Chance 1X @2.59. The pick scores 76/100, with an EV of +88.3% and 72.7% confidence.
The second pick is Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA: Under 2.5 goals @2.24. It has a score of 75/100, an EV of +33.3%, and a confidence level of 59.5%. The third pick is Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham: BTTS Yes @2.25. It has a score of 61/100, an EV of +26.3%, and a confidence level of 56.1%.
The odds for all three Top 3 selections are above 2.00. The first two picks also exceed 0.75. This Top 3 selection will therefore be interesting to track in tomorrow's results.
Today's 2-out-of-3 system bet
The "2-out-of-3" system currently uses the same three selections as the "Top 3." It combines **Kristiansund BK – Rosenborg 1X @2.59**, **Sporting Hasselt – Beerschot VA Under 2.5 @2.24**, and **Torquay – AFC Stoneham BTTS Yes @2.25**.
The system achieves an average score of 71/100 and an average EV of +49.3%. The stake suggested by FootProbability is €3 to €5 in total, distributed across the three double bets.
The system's principle is simple. Two correct predictions out of three result in one winning double. All three predictions must be correct for all three doubles to win.
Other value bets to follow
Several other value bets score 50/100 or higher. In the Championship, QPR vs. Preston (Under 2.5 goals @1.98) scores 59/100 with an EV of +15.2%. In South Africa, Richards Bay vs. Sekhukhune United (Over 2.5 goals @2.38) reaches 54/100 with an EV of +24.4%.
In Algeria, Olympique Akbou vs. USM Alger (BTTS: Yes @2.10) scores 53/100 with an EV of +18.2%. In the Premier League, Everton vs. Ipswich (Over 2.5 @1.73) reaches 51/100 with an EV of +5.4%.
Finally, IF Brommapojkarna wins against IFK Göteborg @2.80 obtains a score of 50/100 and an EV of +30.1%. These five selections complete the Top 3 to form the eight Value Bets that reach at least 50/100 today.
Molde is the favorite today.
FootProbability identifies Molde as the favorite against Aalesund. The odds for a Molde victory are 1.29. The probability calculated by the model is 56.3%.
A favorite is not automatically a value bet. The "favorites" section lists teams for which the market and the model align. The "value bet" section employs a different logic, based on comparing the model's probability with the available odds.
The major championships are also on the agenda.
The Saturday schedule allows FootProbability to cover numerous leagues. The Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, the J1 League, and several other competitions are featured in the day's analyses.
In the Premier League, the model selects **Everton vs. Ipswich – Over 2.5 goals @1.73**, with a score of 51/100. In the Bundesliga, **VfB Stuttgart to beat Borussia Dortmund @2.38** also appears as a value bet, though with a more cautious score of 37/100.
In Serie A, **Udinese vs. Cagliari Over 2.5 @2.07** and **Bologna vs. Torino Over 2.5 @1.98** have also been identified as value bets. However, both selections remain classified in the "Caution" category.
A team's league or popularity does not alter the selection criteria. All matches are analyzed using the same statistical logic.
Conclusion
September 18 concludes with 10 winning and 16 losing picks out of 26 Value Bets with a final result. The success rate is 38.5%. Based on a fixed theoretical stake, the result is -4.37 units, representing an ROI of -16.8%.
On this Saturday, September 19, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 200 matches and identifies 39 Value Bets. Eight selections achieve a score of 50/100 or higher. The Top Pick is Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg with Double Chance 1X @2.59. It earns a score of 76/100, an EV of +88.3%, and a confidence level of 72.7%.
The top 3 is rounded out by **Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA: Under 2.5 goals @2.24** and **Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham: BTTS (Yes) @2.25**. These three selections also form a "2-out-of-3" system bet, which has an average score of **71/100**.
The results will be added to the history. FootProbability will continue to publish winning and losing predictions in order to track the model's performance over time.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
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