FootProbability continues its analysis this Sunday, September 20, 2026, with another packed schedule. The model has analyzed 174 matches and identified 68 value bets, with an average EV of +20.1% and an average confidence level of 53.3%. Among these fixtures, 29 selections achieved a model score of at least 50/100, allowing for a stricter ranking of the identified opportunities.
Results for September 19: 18 winning predictions out of 45
Saturday, September 19, ended with **18 winning and 27 losing predictions out of the 45 recorded selections**, representing a **40% success rate**. This percentage must be viewed in the context of the odds offered by FootProbability: several selections well exceeded 2.00, and some approached or surpassed 3.00.
Among the winning picks, **TransINVEST Vilnius** secured a 3–0 victory at odds of **2.70**, the **Over 2.5 goals @2.38** bet landed in the Richards Bay vs. Sekhukhune United match, Stoke City beat Sheffield United at odds of **2.30**, and the **Over 2.5 goals @2.16** bet easily won in the BSK Banja Luka vs. Radnik Bijeljina game, which ended in a spectacular 4–4 draw.
The day also saw several losses on selections that nonetheless offered significant EV. VPS (@3.00), Rylands (@3.00), Carrarese (@2.80), and Borussia Mönchengladbach (@2.88) all failed to deliver. This is precisely why a **Value Bet should never be interpreted as a guarantee of a win**: EV measures the theoretical gap between the model's estimated probability and the available odds.
The Top 3 finishes with 2 winning predictions out of 3.
Saturday’s most interesting result comes from the FootProbability Top 3. Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA ended 0–1, securing the win for the Under 2.5 goals @2.24 pick. Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham finished with a resounding 6–1 scoreline, validating the BTTS Yes @2.25 bet. Conversely, QPR vs. Preston ended 2–2, meaning the Under 2.5 @1.98 wager was a loss.
The Top 3 thus finishes with **2 winners out of 3**, with the two winning selections offered at odds above 2.20. This result also illustrates the value of ranking opportunities based on multiple criteria rather than limiting oneself solely to EV.
174 matches and 68 value bets this Sunday.
The schedule remains packed this Sunday. FootProbability analyzes **174 matches**, of which **68 are identified as Value Bets**. The model shows an average EV of **+20.1%**, an average confidence level of **53.3%**, and **29 matches with a score of 50/100 or higher**.
As always, the 68 Value Bets should not be viewed as 68 selections of equal caliber. The model score, confidence level, and EV help distinguish the most promising opportunities from bets classified as cautious or carrying higher risk.
Strong Match: FC Voluntari – Universitatea Cluj
The Top Pick of the Day is the match between FC Voluntari and Universitatea Cluj. FootProbability selects the Double Chance 1X – FC Voluntari or Draw @1.67. This selection boasts an excellent model score of 81/100, with an EV of +28.3% and a confidence level of 76.9%.
The probable score calculated by the model is **1-1**, which aligns with the coverage provided by the 1X Double Chance bet. This selection currently offers the best balance between the model's predicted score, confidence level, and identified value.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 20
First place goes to FC Voluntari – Universitatea Cluj with the Double Chance 1X @1.67, a score of 81/100, an EV of +28.3%, and a confidence level of 76.9%. In second place, LDU de Quito – Universidad Catolica is selected for Under 2.5 @1.87, with a particularly high score of 77/100, an EV of +27.3%, and a confidence level of 68.1%.
Third place goes to a Premier League fixture: Manchester City vs. Sunderland. Here, the model selects the Under 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.35, with a score of 63/100, an EV of +28.6%, and a confidence level of 54.7%.
A "2-out-of-3" system with an average score of 74/100.
These three predictions also make up the day's **FootProbability "2-out-of-3" system**. The concept involves forming three double bets from the three selections. Getting two out of three predictions right results in a winning combination, unlike a standard accumulator, which requires all selections to be correct.
Today's system shows an average score of 74/100 and an average EV of +28.1%. FootProbability indicates a total suggested stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three double bets.
Three market favorites confirmed by the model
FootProbability now also highlights the favorites of the day, independently of the search for Value Bets. The first is Dinamo Zagreb against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, with a model-predicted win probability of 58.4% and odds of 1.17. The second is Jeonbuk Motors versus Gwangju FC, with a probability of 57.1% and odds of 1.39. Finally, Tromso versus Ham-Kam shows a win probability of 56.7% with odds of 1.45.
This category operates on a different logic than "Value Bets." It primarily targets teams favored by the market whose status is also confirmed by the model's probabilities. Consequently, low odds do not automatically imply the existence of a Value Bet.
Other value bets exceed 50/100.
Beyond the top three, several other matches also post promising scores. Levadiakos vs. Olympiakos is a candidate for the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" market at odds of 2.25, with a score of 61/100 and an EV of +26.7%, while US Ben Guerdane vs. CS Hammam-Lif reaches 60/100 for "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 2.55, with an EV of +43.6%.
In South Africa, the **Marumo Gallants vs. Orlando Pirates** match also scores **60/100** for "BTTS – Yes" at odds of 2.20, with an EV of +25%. In MLS, **Colorado Rapids vs. Seattle Sounders** is selected for "BTTS – No" at odds of 2.30, with a score of **58/100** and an EV of +23.6%.
Major matchups also analyzed
The major championships offer several interesting situations this Sunday. In the Premier League, Manchester City – Sunderland directly enters the Top 3, while Fulham – Manchester United appears as a much more speculative Value Bet: victory for Fulham @3.40, EV +49.7%, but only 44/100, which justifies its cautious classification.
In La Liga, the model notably identifies the **Getafe vs. Malaga** match for **BTTS: Yes @2.27**, with a score of **56/100** and an EV of +24.7%. The **Atlético Madrid vs. Real Madrid** fixture also stands out—with an Atlético win @3.52 and a very high theoretical EV of +67.1%—but its score of **50/100** highlights the need to distinguish between mathematical value and the level of confidence in the pick.
A day to be followed with the same transparency
After wrapping up Saturday with **18 winners and 27 losers**—and a **2/3** record in the Top 3—FootProbability is back this Sunday with a fresh dataset. The **174 matches analyzed**, **68 Value Bets**, and—most notably—**29 selections rated 50/100 or higher** provide ample depth to continue monitoring the model's performance across various competitions.
The day's key pick is **FC Voluntari vs. Universitatea Cluj (Double Chance 1X @1.67)**, with a confidence rating of **81/100 (76.9%)**. Alongside this, **LDU Quito vs. Universidad Catolica** and **Manchester City vs. Sunderland** round out a "2-out-of-3" system that achieves an average confidence score of **74/100**. As always, the results will be included in the performance tracking without excluding losing selections.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The odds and value bets presented are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly.