FootProbability continues its analysis this Monday, September 21, 2026, with a much quieter day than Sunday. Today, the model covers 14 matches and identifies only 4 Value Bets, with an average EV of +4.4% and an average confidence level of 56.7%. Notably, no selection exceeds the 50/100 threshold—a clear signal calling for greater caution.
This situation illustrates how FootProbability works: the model is not designed to artificially generate a large number of predictions every day. When the available data and odds offer less value, the number of selections naturally decreases.
Results for September 20: 15 winners out of 39 selections.
Sunday, September 20, concluded with 39 recorded selections, comprising 15 winners and 24 losers. The success rate stands at 38.5%. Based on a simulation using a fixed stake of 1 unit per selection, 39 units would have been wagered for a return of 33.32 units, resulting in a theoretical outcome of -5.68 units and an ROI of -14.6%.
Several high-odds selections were nonetheless successful. The Instituto Córdoba – Talleres Córdoba Over 2.5 goals bet @2.67 ended 3–1. Viborg @2.75 won 4–1 against Nordsjaelland, Erzurumspor @2.55 won 1–0, and Kortrijk @2.50 also secured a win. Meanwhile, the Celtic – Rangers match saw the Under 2.5 goals bet @2.38 come in, with a final score of 0–1.
Overall, however, the day remains negative. It serves as a reminder once again that a **Value Bet represents an estimated mathematical value, not a guarantee of the outcome**. Even when a favorable discrepancy is identified between the model's probability and the offered odds, the match result remains uncertain.
Only 4 value bets this Monday.
The contrast with Sunday is particularly striking. FootProbability has gone from 68 value bets on the previous matchday to just **4 value bets today**. Out of the 14 matches analyzed, none achieved a model score of 50/100 or higher.
This small number is not necessarily a problem. On the contrary, it shows that the same criteria are applied regardless of the program's richness. Some days offer numerous potential opportunities; others, far fewer. Today clearly falls into the latter category.
Strong Match: Manta FC – Orense SC
The Top Match of the Day features the Ecuadorian fixture between Manta FC and Orense SC. The model selects Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with an estimated probability corresponding to a confidence level of 63.4%. However, the EV is only +2.1%, and the model score stands at 49/100.
The calculated probable score is **1-1**, and the selection falls into the **Caution** category. While this is the best score available today, its status as a "Strong Match" must be interpreted in the context of the day's other fixtures; a score of 49/100 remains well below the "Strong Match" ratings seen on previous days.
A "Top of the Day" that doesn't exceed 49/100.
Manta FC vs. Orense SC takes the top spot with its **Under 2.5 @1.61** pick, a score of **49/100**, an EV of +2.1%, and 63.4% confidence. Next up, **CF Pachuca vs. Club Tijuana** is featured with **BTTS Yes @1.80**, a score of **44/100**, an EV of +4.0%, and 57.8% confidence.
The third selection used by FootProbability is Oţelul vs. Corvinul Hunedoara: Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08. It shows an EV of +9.0%, but a score of only 38/100 and a confidence level of 52.4%. Here again, the mathematical potential is present, but the overall quality of the selection remains moderate.
2-out-of-3 system: caution advised here too.
The 2-out-of-3 system includes Manta FC – Orense SC Under 2.5 @1.61, Pachuca – Tijuana BTTS Yes @1.80, and Oţelul – Corvinul Over 2.5 @2.08. The system’s average score is just 44/100, with an average EV of +5.0%.
These figures are significantly lower than those observed on the days most favorable to the model. The system remains listed because it comprises the three best available selections, but the indicators clearly show that it does not currently possess the same level of statistical quality as a system scoring above 60 or 70/100.
The fourth Value Bet: Llaneros – Atlético Nacional
The latest value bet identified is for the Llaneros vs. Atlético Nacional match. FootProbability selects Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with an EV of +2.3%. However, its model score is only 32/100, placing it in the "Caution" category as well.
We therefore have four Value Bets today, but no selection strong enough to cross the 50/100 threshold. This distinction between the presence of theoretical value and the overall quality of the prediction remains essential when interpreting FootProbability analyses.
Two favorites of the day
Alongside the value bets, the model identifies two market favorites. Toluca vs. Santos Laguna takes the top spot with a model-calculated win probability of 58.1% and odds of 1.21. Petrolul Ploiesti vs. Csikszereda follows with a probability of 54.3% and odds of 1.74.
Favorites represent a category distinct from "value bets." The goal here is to identify teams whose status as market favorites is also confirmed by the model, without automatically regarding their low odds as a value opportunity.
A day when knowing not to push yourself also counts.
September 21, 2026, turns out to be an interesting day for understanding the FootProbability philosophy. Only 14 matches are analyzed, four Value Bets are identified, and no selection reaches a score of 50/100. The "Strong Match" itself tops out at 49/100.
Under these conditions, the goal is not to chase a spectacular prediction at all costs. The available indicators suggest a selective approach instead. Manta FC vs. Orense SC – Under 2.5 goals @1.61 remains the model's top pick, but its score of 49/100 and limited EV of +2.1% warrant a measured approach.
The results will be incorporated into FootProbability’s performance tracking in the same way as previous matchdays, whether they are winning or losing.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. Odds, scores, and value bets are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly.