FootProbability continues its analysis this Wednesday, September 23, 2026, with a particularly limited schedule. Today, the model covers just 7 matches and identifies a single official Value Bet, with an average EV of +4.4% and an average confidence level of 56.4%.
However, the day presents an interesting quirk. Two CONCACAF matches score above **50/100** and show very high theoretical EV, yet do not appear in the "Value Bet" category. This serves as a reminder that a high score or a calculated EV is not always enough to meet all of FootProbability’s selection criteria.
Results for September 22: 2 winners, 1 loser, and one "Strong Match" postponed.
Based on the results recorded so far, yesterday’s action concludes with two winning picks and one losing pick. The featured match between MC Alger and MC Oran—originally selected for "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at odds of 2.35—was postponed; consequently, it must be handled separately rather than counted as a losing prediction.
The Independiente Medellín – Jaguares match saw the BTTS Yes @1.97 bet land, with Medellín winning 2-1. The Chippenham Town – Yate Town match—played on a Chippenham win @2.31—also ended successfully with a 2-1 scoreline.
On the other hand, the **US Biskra vs. JS Saoura Over 2.5 goals bet at odds of 3.22** did not win. The match ended 0–0.
Out of the **3 actual selections made**, the record stands at **2 winners and 1 loser**, representing a **66.7% success rate**. Based on a fixed-stake simulation of 1 unit, the two winning bets yield 4.28 units from a total wager of 3 units, resulting in a profit of **+1.28 units and a theoretical ROI of +42.7%**.
The postponed "Match Fort" is not included in this calculation.
Only 7 matches analyzed this Wednesday.
The schedule for September 23 is even more limited. Today, FootProbability covers only **7 matches**, distributed primarily across the CONCACAF Nations League, friendlies, Colombia, and the FA Cup.
Above all, the model identifies only **one official Value Bet**. Nevertheless, two matches score above 50/100, while five remain below this threshold.
This small number once again illustrates the FootProbability principle: the number of selections depends on available data and the model's criteria. There is no need to find dozens of Value Bets every day.
Turks and Caicos Islands – Montserrat: the highest score of the day
The model's top pick is for the Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Montserrat match in the CONCACAF Nations League. FootProbability favors Under 2.5 goals @2.69.
The selection achieves a score of 61/100, with a particularly high theoretical EV of +59.8% and a confidence level of 59.4%. The calculated probable score is 1-1.
This is therefore the best score available today. However, it should be noted that this match is listed as a **Watched Match** rather than an official Value Bet on the member page.
Bahamas – Saint Martin: a +78.2% variation
The system's second pick is **Bahamas vs. Saint Martin**. The model also favors **Under 2.5 goals**, this time with particularly high odds of **3.08**.
The model score reaches **56/100**, confidence is **57.8%**, and the calculated EV rises to **+78.2%**. The predicted score is also 1-1.
This EV figure is impressive on paper, but it should be interpreted with caution. The match is not classified as a Value Bet on the member page. We are therefore presenting it as a system selection rather than an official Value Bet.
Aruba – Antigua and Barbuda completes the 2-out-of-3 system.
The third match is **Aruba vs. Antigua and Barbuda**, again in the Under 2.5 goals market. The listed odds are **2.05**, with an EV of **+18.1%**, a confidence level of **57.6%**, and a score of **49/100**.
This selection is rated **Caution** and remains just below the symbolic 50/100 mark.
The three matches make up the day's **2-out-of-3** system. Its average score is **55/100**, and its average EV is **+52.0%**. FootProbability suggests a total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three double bets.
The only official Value Bet: Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan
The only match currently bearing the **Value Bet** badge is the friendly between **Azerbaijan and Tajikistan**.
FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @1.85. However, the model score is only 39/100, with an EV of +4.4%. The projected score is 1-1, and the selection is logically classified as Caution.
This is an interesting case: unlike CONCACAF matches, which show very high EV but do not carry the "Value Bet" badge, Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan meets the necessary criteria to officially appear in this category.
Gibraltar favored against São Tomé and Príncipe
The favorite of the day is Gibraltar against São Tomé and Príncipe. The model estimates their probability of victory at 50.1%, with odds of 1.39.
Regarding the match itself, FootProbability also calculates a BTTS Yes @1.77, but with a slightly negative EV of -0.8% and a score of only 35/100. This selection is therefore classified as "Caution" and is not a Value Bet.
An unusual day for FootProbability
This September 23, 2026, offers an interesting example of the difference between the various indicators used by FootProbability. The model lists only 7 matches and a single Value Bet, yet the top CONCACAF selections show scores and EV figures far superior to those of that official Value Bet.
This demonstrates why it is important not to look solely at EV. Model score, confidence, odds availability and quality, as well as the various selection filters, must be interpreted together.
Following the 2-out-of-3 winning record from yesterday's three selected outcomes, the approach to September 23rd will be selective. The results will then be incorporated into the performance tracking, including both winning and losing picks.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A "Value Bet" or positive EV represents a statistical estimate and never guarantees the outcome of a match. Gamble responsibly.