FootProbability continues its analysis this Thursday, September 24, 2026, with a busier schedule than in recent rounds. Today, the model analyzes 29 matches and identifies 5 Value Bets, with an average EV of +26.7% and an average confidence level of 51.3%.
The day’s lineup primarily features several high-odds selections. The "Strong Match" scores 56/100 with odds of 3.40, while the "2-out-of-3" system shows an average score of 64/100. As always, a high EV indicates a discrepancy between the model's estimated probability and the available odds, not a guarantee of the outcome.
Results for September 23: the only Value Bet lost.
The day of September 23rd was particularly limited, featuring only one official Value Bet. FootProbability had selected Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan – BTTS Yes @1.85.
The match ended with a score of 1-0. Since Tajikistan did not score, the prediction is a loss. The record for Value Bets followed since September 23rd thus stands at 0 wins and 1 loss.
This result also illustrates why we track all results as part of our performance monitoring. A "value bet" represents a mathematical opportunity identified at the time of analysis, yet the outcome of a match remains uncertain.
29 matches analyzed and 5 value bets today
The schedule for September 24 is significantly more extensive, with **29 matches covered**. FootProbability identifies **5 Value Bets**, as well as **5 matches with a model score of 50/100 or higher**.
The matches are drawn notably from the UEFA Nations League, international friendlies, Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, MLS, and leagues in Colombia and Morocco. This diversity allows the model to seek value across multiple markets and competitions.
Strong Match: China – Maldives
The featured match on September 24 is the friendly between China and the Maldives. FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @3.40, meaning both teams are expected to score.
The prediction has a model score of 56/100, a confidence level of 54.5%, and, above all, an EV of +85.4%.
The odds of 3.40 are particularly high for a "Both Teams to Score" (BTTS) bet. The value identified by the model stems precisely from this discrepancy between the estimated probability and the offered price. However, with a confidence level of 54.5%, this +85.4% EV should not be interpreted as an 85.4% probability of success.
Top Football Probability: China vs. Maldives in first place
China vs. Maldives – BTTS Yes @3.40 logically takes the top spot among the model's best picks. It posts a score of 56/100, with +85.4% EV and 54.5% confidence.
The next pick is **Uzbekistan vs. Iran**, with an **Uzbekistan win @2.80**. Its model score is lower at **46/100**, with 46.9% confidence and an EV of **+31.3%**.
This second pick therefore falls into a more cautious category, despite its positive EV. The high odds increase the theoretical potential, but also the uncertainty associated with the prediction.
A 2-out-of-3 system at 64/100
The 2-out-of-3 system is currently one of the most interesting features of the FootProbability page. It is based on three UEFA Nations League matches, and—notably—all three predictions are for the Under 2.5 goals market.
The first pick is Portugal vs. Wales: Under 2.5 @2.35. It earns an excellent score of 66/100, with 60.0% confidence and an EV of +41.0%.
The second pick is Norway vs. Denmark: Under 2.5 @2.15, with a score of 65/100, 60.0% confidence, and an EV of +29.1%. The third is Netherlands vs. Germany: Under 2.5 @2.55, showing a score of 61/100, 60.3% confidence, and an EV of +53.9%.
Overall, the system achieves an average score of 64/100 and an average EV of +41.3%. The suggested stake displayed by FootProbability is €3 to €5 in total, distributed across the three double bets.
Portugal vs. Wales: the best score of the day
Looking solely at the model score, Portugal vs. Wales stands out with 66/100—higher than the "Strong Match" rating.
FootProbability selects **Under 2.5 @2.35**, with an EV of +41.0%. The probable score calculated by the model is **1-1**.
However, this match is listed as a **Monitored Match** rather than an official Value Bet. This is an important distinction: the model score measures the overall quality of the selection, whereas the Value Bet badge depends on specific criteria applied by FootProbability.
Norway–Denmark and the Netherlands–Germany round out the trio.
The second-highest score goes to **Norway vs. Denmark**, also for Under 2.5 goals. The model assigns it a rating of **65/100**, +29.1% EV, and odds of 2.15.
Netherlands – Germany follows with a score of 61/100. The "Under 2.5 goals" bet is offered at odds of 2.55, with a calculated EV of +53.9%. Here too, FootProbability projects a likely score of 1-1.
A fourth Nations League match also stands out: Austria vs. Israel – Under 2.5 goals @2.49, with a 61/100 rating and +50.5% EV. However, it is not included in the 2-out-of-3 system presented today.
The other value bets for September 24
Among the other official Value Bets, the **Uzbekistan vs. Iran** match is being played on an Uzbekistan win at odds of 2.80. The score remains capped at **46/100**, despite an EV of +31.3%.
Two friendly matches have also been selected for the Over 2.5 market. South Korea vs. Ecuador: Over 2.5 @2.15 shows a score of 33/100 and +7.6% EV, while Japan vs. Uruguay: Over 2.5 @2.07 also scores 33/100 with +7.3% EV. Both selections are rated Caution.
Finally, **America de Cali – Águilas Doradas** rounds out the five value bets. FootProbability selects **Under 2.5 goals @1.92**, with a score of **36/100** and an EV of **+2.1%**.
América de Cali is the favorite today.
FootProbability also distinguishes market favorites from "value bets." The day's favorite is **America de Cali against Águilas Doradas**.
The model estimates its probability of victory at 54.5%, with odds of 1.50.
It is important to distinguish this information from the Value Bet selected for the same match. The favorite pick is for an America de Cali victory, whereas the official Value Bet is on **Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92**.
An interesting day, but very different profiles.
This **September 24, 2026**, presents a rather unique setup. FootProbability analyzes **29 matches and identifies 5 Value Bets**, with a high average EV of **+26.7%**.
The China vs. Maldives BTTS Yes "Strong Match" pick (odds of 3.40) boasts a spectacular EV of +85.4%, but a confidence level of only 54.5%. Conversely, the 2-out-of-3 system shows more consistent scores, ranging from 61 to 66/100, with an average of 64/100.
Today once again demonstrates why it is better to analyze odds, EV, confidence, and the model score together, rather than focusing on a single indicator.
The results from September 24 will then be added to the performance tracking, whether they are winning or losing.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The probabilities, scores, and value bets presented by FootProbability are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly.