FootProbability moves on to a significantly busier day this Saturday, September 26, 2026. The model has analyzed 53 matches and identified 12 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +24.8%, with an average confidence level of 51.1%.
However, quantity does not necessarily mean quality. Only **8 matches achieve a model score of at least 50/100**. Among the 12 Value Bets, only two exceed this threshold. FootProbability therefore sticks to its principle: identifying statistical value while distinguishing the most solid selections from more speculative opportunities.
A look back at September 25: both selected picks won.
Yesterday ended with a positive outcome for the two selections being tracked.
The India vs. Panama Featured Match offered "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 2.15. The match ended 1–1, making the prediction a winner. This pick appears in the history as a "Top 3" selection.
The second pick was the Value Bet Chico – Deportivo Pasto, with a Chico win at 2.52. The final score of 3-0 also confirms the prediction.
FootProbability therefore approaches this new matchday following two winning picks on September 25, without altering its method: each new matchday is analyzed independently of previous results.
53 matches and 12 value bets on September 26
The volume is surging today, with 53 matches covered. The model identifies 12 Value Bets, compared to just two the previous day.
This difference illustrates why the number of Value Bets should not be viewed as a daily target. A selection earns this status when a significant gap emerges between the probability calculated by FootProbability and the odds offered.
However, some value bets have a relatively low model score. They are therefore marked with the label **Caution**.
Strong Match: Wydad AC – Widad Témara
The featured match of the day takes place in Morocco, with the encounter between Wydad AC and Widad Témara.
FootProbability selects BTTS Yes at 2.32. The prediction has a model score of 65/100, a confidence level of 56.3%, and an EV of +30.6%.
The calculated probable score is 1-1. The model detects a significant enough discrepancy between its estimated probability for the BTTS market and the available odds.
With a score of 65/100, this selection also holds the top spot in the FootProbability Top 3.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 26
The second pick in the Top 3 is **Difaa El Jadida vs. CODM Meknès**. The model favors **Over 2.5 goals at 2.37**, with a score of **55/100**, an EV of **+25.1%**, and a confidence level of **52.8%**.
Third place goes to CF Montréal vs. FC Cincinnati. FootProbability selects a CF Montréal win at 2.59. The model score is 47/100, with an EV of +25.9% and a confidence level of 48.6%. This third pick therefore carries more risk than the first two.
Today's Top 3 combines three different markets: BTTS, Over/Under, and the 1X2 match-winner.
2-out-of-3 system: average score of 65/100
The **2-out-of-3** system is particularly interesting to look at today. It does not simply use the top three finishing positions; instead, it seeks a combination suited to this type of wager.
The first pick is North Macedonia vs. Switzerland: Double Chance 1X at 2.82. It scores 67/100, with a confidence level of 73.6% and a calculated EV of +107.5%.
The second pick is Wydad AC vs. Widad Témara: BTTS Yes at 2.32, with a score of 65/100, 56.3% confidence, and an EV of +30.6%.
Finally, **Czech Republic vs. Croatia: Double Chance 1X at 1.66** rounds out the system with a score of **63/100**, **72.9%** confidence, and an EV of **+21.0%**.
The system thus achieves an average score of 65/100 and an average EV of +53.1%. The very high EV of the first selection reflects a significant discrepancy detected by the model; it does not, of course, guarantee a specific outcome.
Two value bets exceed 50/100.
Among the 12 Value Bets identified today, two stand out with a score above 50/100.
Wydad AC – Widad Témara, with BTTS Yes @2.32, scores 65/100. Difaa El Jadida – CODM Meknès, with Over 2.5 @2.37, scores 55/100.
The other Value Bets listed are more speculative. Notable picks include UTS Rabat at **3.00**, CF Montréal at **2.59**, Barry Town at **3.41**, and Atlante FC at **3.20**, as well as several selections in the Over/Under and BTTS markets.
They offer positive EV, but their lower model score accounts for their classification as Conservative. A high EV does not necessarily imply a high probability of winning.
Today's favorites
FootProbability also identifies two market favorites confirmed by the model.
The New Saints are tipped to win against Trefelin with a model-calculated probability of 58.5%, but the odds are only 1.03. Philadelphia Union are favorites against Orlando City with a probability of 56.5% and odds of 1.41.
This information makes it possible to compare the model's reading with that of the market. However, a favorite team does not automatically represent a "value bet."
A packed day, but one requiring selectivity.
With 53 matches and 12 Value Bets, September 26 offers far more possibilities than the previous day. However, the model’s scores show that it remains important to prioritize opportunities.
The Wydad AC vs. Widad Témara marquee match leads the day with a score of 65/100, while the "2-out-of-3" system also posts an average of 65/100.
Following the two winning picks on September 25, FootProbability is continuing with the exact same approach: analyzing probabilities, identifying discrepancies with the odds, and tracking results without cherry-picking only favorable matchdays.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The probabilities, scores, and EV presented by FootProbability do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly. 18+