This Friday, October 9, 2026, FootProbability presents a new day of analysis featuring 62 matches across various international leagues. Our statistical model identifies 26 value bets, with an average EV of +19.6% and an average confidence level of 51.8%.
Our featured match takes us to Ukraine for the clash between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk. Three other games make up our "Top 3" picks, played using a "2-out-of-3" system. Following a tough day on October 8th, our priority remains unchanged: applying a consistent method, tracking results, and measuring performance without altering predictions after the fact.
📊 Results of the predictions for October 8, 2026
Thursday, October 8, ended with an unfavorable outcome for the selections currently recorded in our history.
Out of 8 tracked predictions, 2 were winners and 6 were losers, representing a 25% success rate. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of one unit per selection, the net result is -2.51 units, corresponding to an ROI of -31.4%.
The Top 3 achieved one win out of three selections, thanks to the "Over 2.5 goals" pick for the CR Khemis Zemamra vs. Hassania Agadir match, which landed at odds of 2.39 following a 2–5 result. Among the Value Bets, MB Rouisset secured a 1–0 victory over USM Alger, delivering a winning home-win bet at odds of 3.10.
On the other hand, the HJK Helsinki vs. VPS "Strong Match" pick was a clear failure: the game ended 6–0, whereas our model had selected "Under 2.5 goals."
This review serves as a reminder that a positive EV represents an estimate of statistical value rather than a guarantee of results. It is essential to evaluate performance over a sufficiently large sample, while distinguishing between the different categories of predictions.
⭐ Strong match on October 9: Veres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk
The "Fort FootProbability" match takes place in the Ukrainian Premier League, featuring a clash between Veres Rivne and Shakhtar Donetsk.
Our prediction: both teams to score (BTTS Yes).
- Side : 2,33
- Model score: 65/100
- Estimated EV: +30,4 %
- Confidence: 56,0 %
- Probable score: 1-1
The model identifies a favorable discrepancy between its estimated probability for the BTTS market and the available odds. It is this difference that justifies the selection, rather than a simple preference for either team.
With a score of 65/100, this match receives the highest rating of the day. However, the 56.0% confidence level serves as a reminder that the outcome remains uncertain, particularly because the bet requires at least one goal from each team.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for Friday, October 9
🥇 Veres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk: BTTS Yes
Model score: 65/100 | Odds: 2.33 | EV: +30.4% | Confidence: 56.0%
This match tops the rankings and also stands out as our featured game. The model favors a scenario where both teams find the back of the net, with a probable scoreline of 1-1.
🥈 Daejeon Citizen – Jeonbuk Motors : Under 2,5
Score modèle : 61/100 | Cote : 1,99 | EV : +16,8 % | Confiance : 58,7 %
We head to South Korea's K League 1 for our second pick. FootProbability is targeting a match with fewer than three goals, with a probable scoreline of 1-1.
This match shows the highest confidence level of our Top 3, at 58.7%. Nevertheless, it remains subject to the usual volatility of goal markets.
🥉 JS Kabylie – ASO Chlef: BTTS Yes
Model score: 59/100 | Odds: 2.20 | EV: +23.9% | Confidence: 56.3%
Our third pick focuses on the Algerian Ligue 1. The model favors the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" market, with a probable scoreline of 1-1.
The odds of 2.20 and the estimated EV of +23.9% place this match among the day’s top-rated opportunities, without, however, eliminating the risk of a tight, low-scoring game.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: three matches selected
The FootProbability system for October 9th includes the three picks from our Top 3: Veres Rivne vs. Shakhtar Donetsk (BTTS: Yes at 2.33), Daejeon Citizen vs. Jeonbuk Motors (Under 2.5 goals at 1.99), and JS Kabylie vs. ASO Chlef (BTTS: Yes at 2.20).
The system's average score reaches 62/100, with an estimated average EV of +23.7%. The member page indicates a total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three doubles.
A "2-out-of-3" system can yield a return when two selections win, but it does not guarantee a profit: the outcome depends on the odds, the distribution of stakes, and the number of winning selections. If all three bets lose, the entire stake is lost.
💎 The 26 Value Bets for October 9, 2026
Beyond the top 3, our model identifies 26 value bets across various competitions. These selections do not all offer the same level of reliability: some show high EV but a model score below 50/100.
Ukraine, South Korea, and Algeria
Veres Rivne vs. Shakhtar Donetsk kicks off the day’s action with our "Strong Match" pick, rated at 65/100. In South Korea, Daejeon Citizen vs. Jeonbuk Motors also ranks among the top-rated matches, while Incheon United vs. Pohang Steelers offers an "Over 2.5" bet at odds of 2.36, with an EV of +23.0% and a score of 52/100.
Gangwon FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 rounds out the South Korean selections with an "Under 2.5 goals" pick at odds of 1.67, a score of 51/100, and a more modest EV of +4.3%.
In Algeria, the JS Kabylie vs. ASO Chlef match ranks among the top three. MC Alger vs. Témouchent also draws attention, featuring "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at odds of 2.80, an estimated EV of +51.0%, and a model score of 55/100.
Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Wales
For the Al-Nassr vs. Al Diriyah match, the "Under 2.5 goals" bet at odds of 2.79 has been selected. The model assigns this bet a score of 55/100 and an EV of +43.9%—a high estimate that will need to be measured against the actual result.
In Morocco, the Moghreb Tétouan vs. FUS Rabat match offers "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.58, with a score of 54/100 and an EV of +34.9%. In Wales, Cardiff MET vs. Trefelin appears as a "BTTS – Yes" pick at 1.80, with an EV of +6.5% and a score of 51/100.
France: Ligue 1 and Ligue 2
Three French matches feature in today’s Value Bets. In Ligue 2, the Sochaux vs. Boulogne game has been selected for the "Over 2.5 goals" market at odds of 2.29, with an EV of +19.3% and a score of 49/100.
For Dunkerque vs. Annecy, a home win at odds of 2.18 has been selected; however, a model score of just 25/100 and an EV of +3.9% call for particular caution.
In Ligue 1, the Lens–Lyon match also appears in the model's results, with a Lens win at odds of 2.31. Its score of 22/100—despite a slightly positive EV of +2.3%—classifies it as a risky pick rather than a top priority for the matchday.
Argentina, Spain, and Portugal
In Argentina, the Instituto Córdoba vs. Boca Juniors match has been selected for the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" market at odds of 2.10, with an EV of +14.2% and a score of 49/100. Aldosivi vs. Sarmiento Junín rounds out this selection with a home win at 2.50, a score of 30/100, and an EV of +11.6%.
In Spain, the Málaga vs. Espanyol match shows a home win at odds of 2.68, with an estimated EV of +29.8% and a score of 47/100.
In Portugal, the Moreirense vs. Gil Vicente match stands out with home-win odds of 3.21 and an EV of +42.6%. However, its model score of 45/100 indicates a more speculative pick than the top three selections.
Ireland, Brazil, and other leagues
In Ireland, the Waterford vs. Galway United match is selected for the "Under 2.5 goals" market at odds of 2.30, while Derry City vs. St Patrick’s Athletic offers a home win at 2.97, with an EV of +27.8%.
In Brazil, the Palmeiras vs. Bahia match is a pick for "Under 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.28, with an EV of +14.4%. Fluminense vs. Coritiba is selected for "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 1.84, though its low EV of +3.5% warrants distinguishing it from the stronger opportunities.
The model also identifies Karmiotissa – Omonia Nicosia in BTTS Yes at 2.01, Libertad – Leones del Norte in Over 2.5 at 2.24, Velež – Široki Brijeg in Over 2.5 at 2.16, Sichuan Jiuniu – Henan Jianye in home victory at 2.79, Corvinul Hunedoara – FC Voluntari in BTTS Yes at 1.83 and Avellino – Sampdoria in home victory at 2.61.
These various encounters illustrate the diversity of the markets analyzed, as well as the importance of not automatically equating positive EV with a top-priority pick.
⭐ No favorites selected today
Unlike some previous days, no favorite meets the FootProbability criteria this Friday, October 9.
Our model does not seek to artificially populate this category. When no match meets the necessary criteria, it prefers not to offer any selection.
This discipline is an integral part of our methodology: identifying opportunities when they exist, without turning every match into a recommended bet.
📈 An important day for model monitoring
With 62 matches analyzed, 26 value bets, and 9 games exceeding the 50/100 threshold, the day of October 9 offers a new set of data to track.
The results of upcoming matches will allow us to evaluate the effectiveness of our selections, particularly regarding BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, and home win markets. We will also continue to monitor performance differences between top-rated predictions and those with positive EV but lower scores.
The results will be incorporated into our historical data to measure the success rate, units won or lost, and the theoretical ROI of the various categories.
Find all analyses in the FootProbability member area and check our Performance page to track the model's results.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
🔥 FootProbability Shop
Discover the official FootProbability creations.
FP Analyst Performance T-Shirt | Trust The Numbers
FP Analyst Performance T-Shirt | Trust The Numbers
⚠️ Jeu responsable : les pronostics sont des estimations statistiques et ne garantissent aucun gain. Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte financière. Réservé aux personnes majeures (18+). Ne misez jamais une somme que vous ne pouvez pas vous permettre de perdre.