The 2026 World Cup finally kicks off with a match that immediately brings back fond memories for football fans. For the first time in the competition's history, the opening match pits two nations against each other that have already faced off in an inaugural game. Sixteen years after the 1-1 draw between Mexico and South Africa at the 2010 World Cup in Johannesburg, the two teams meet again to launch the biggest football event on the planet.
Mexico wants to take advantage of home advantage
As hosts of the 2026 World Cup, Mexico will approach this match with the pressure but also the enthusiasm of an entire nation. El Tri has a wealth of experience in the tournament, having played 60 matches in the final stages, a record for a nation that has never won the trophy.
The signs are rather positive ahead of this first encounter. The Mexicans are on a run of six wins in their last eight matches and haven't lost a World Cup opening game since 1994. During this period, the team has demonstrated real defensive solidity with six clean sheets and fifteen goals scored.
The Estadio Azteca also represents a major advantage. Mexico remains undefeated there in the World Cup with five wins and two draws in seven matches played.
South Africa wants to cause an upset
Bafana Bafana are participating in their fourth World Cup and are returning to the competition for the first time since the 2010 edition hosted on their home soil.
Hugo Broos's team had a solid qualifying campaign, finishing ahead of Nigeria. However, their recent form is less encouraging, with five matches without a win. Despite this, South Africa still possesses several strengths, including a disciplined defense and an ability to remain competitive against more experienced opponents.
One of the most interesting aspects concerns their attacking profile. Five of South Africa's last six matches have seen both teams find the back of the net, which could influence the outcome of this opening match.
Players to watch
On the Mexican side, Johan Vásquez arrives brimming with confidence. The central defender has scored three times in his last three appearances for club and country. His presence on set pieces could be an additional weapon for El Tri.
For South Africa, Oswin Appollis was the main architect of their qualification with six direct contributions to goals. His attacking activity could pose problems for the Mexican defense.
FootProbability Analysis
The data from the FootProbability model suggests a more open encounter than some observers imagine.
📊 Model probabilities:
Mexico: 48.4%
Draw: 25.0%
South Africa: 26.6%
⚽ More than 2.5 goals: 53.8%
⚽ Both teams score: 56.2%
The model assigns a slight value to the goals market with a selection on the Over 2.5 goals.
Football Probability Prediction
🎯 Mexico – South Africa: Over 2.5 goals
📈 Odds: 2.25
🔥 Estimated EV: +21.1%
📊 Model score: 53/100
Between the advantage of playing on Mexican soil, recent offensive statistics and trends observed on both teams, the model estimates that this opening match has greater potential than suggested by the market.
The 2026 World Cup is underway. The question now is whether this latest clash between Mexico and South Africa will deliver a spectacle as memorable as the 2010 encounter.