This Saturday, August 22, 2026, the football schedule is particularly packed. The FootProbability statistical model analyzes 150 matches today and detects 100 Value Bets, with 73 matches displaying a model score of at least 50/100.
This day therefore offers a very wide range of opportunities in several European and international championships.
As always, FootProbability doesn't simply try to identify the favorite in a match. The model compares its own probabilities to the odds actually offered by the market in order to find selections with a positive expected value (+EV).
🎯 FootProbability's Top 3 for August 22, 2026
Three matches stand out at the top of the rankings today. A unique feature of this selection: the three best predictions are for the BTTS market – Both Teams to Score.
🥇 Levski Sofia – Spartak Varna: BTTS Yes
The best prediction of the day concerns the Bulgarian First League match between Levski Sofia and Spartak Varna.
Prognosis: BTTS Yes
Odds: 2.38
EV: +42.1%
Confidence: 48.3%
Model score: 68/100
Probable score: 1-1
With a model score of 68/100, this match tops the FootProbability rankings. The model identifies a significant enough gap between its projection and the available odds to classify BTTS Yes among the best opportunities of the day.
The odds of 2.38 associated with a theoretical EV of +42.1% make the selection particularly interesting from a value perspective, although a confidence of 48.3% reminds us that it is obviously not a certainty.
🥈 Hibernian – Kilmarnock: BTTS Yes
Next stop, Scotland for the second prediction.
Prognosis: BTTS Yes
Odds: 1.94
EV: +51.0%
Confidence: 43.0%
Model score: 65/100
Probable score: 2-2
Hibernian – Kilmarnock even boasts the highest EV of the Top 3 at +51.0%. Its model score of 65/100 allows it to take second place in the rankings.
The probable score of 2-2 is also consistent with a scenario in which both teams find the back of the net.
This is therefore one of the attacking matches to follow closely today.
🥉 OFK Beograd – Zemun: BTTS Yes
The third model option takes us to Serbia.
Prognosis: BTTS Yes
Odd: 2.38
EV: +31.2%
Confidence: 48.8%
Model score: 64/100
OFK Beograd – Zemun completes the podium with a model score of 64/100 and a rating of 2.38.
The EV of +31.2% is less spectacular than that of the first two selections, but the confidence level of 48.8% is slightly higher than that of the other two Top 3 matches.
🔥 Three Value Bets, three different profiles
This Top 3 clearly illustrates why you shouldn't only look at EV.
Hibernian – Kilmarnock has the highest EV (+51.0%), while Levski Sofia – Spartak Varna achieves the best overall model score with 68/100. OFK Beograd – Zemun has the highest confidence of the three with 48.8%.
The Foot Probability ranking combines several indicators to avoid automatically selecting matches that simply have the highest theoretical EV.
🇫🇷 Ligue 1: Troyes – Paris FC attracts attention
Ligue 1 offers several interesting situations this Saturday.
Among them, Troyes – Paris FC stands out in particular:
Prognosis: Troyes victory
Odds: 3.25
EV: +59.0%
Model score: 57/100
Probable score: 2-1
The model therefore considers that the probability of a Troyes victory is higher than what the available odds suggest.
However, be aware that a high probability also signifies significant uncertainty. A high EV does not mean the event is highly probable, but rather that the model estimates its market price could be higher than its fair value.
🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter – Monza among the matches to watch
In Italy, Inter – Monza also appears among the interesting Value Bets.
Prognosis: BTTS Yes
Odd: 2.42
EV: +39.8%
Model score: 57/100
Probable score: 1-1
Despite Inter's status, the model here does not focus on the 1X2 market but on the possibility that both teams score.
This is precisely the advantage of a probabilistic approach: to search for the market where the gap between the estimated probability and the proposed odds seems most attractive.
🇪🇸 La Liga : Valencia – Celta Vigo
In Spain, Valencia – Celta Vigo stands out in the goals market.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.32
EV: +25.4%
Model score: 56/100
The match is among the interesting selections of the day with a favorable projection for a scenario of at least three goals.
🇵🇹 Sporting CP – Alverca: the model prefers the Under
Another interesting configuration in Portugal with Sporting CP – Alverca.
This time, the model is geared towards:
Prognosis: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.88
EV: +27.3%
Model score: 57/100
Probable score: 1-1
This selection also shows that FootProbability does not systematically favour offensive markets: when the calculated probabilities justify it, the Under 2.5 can become the market with the most value.
🧮 System 2 out of 3 for today
The first three selections can also be used in the 2 out of 3 FootProbability system:
1. Levski Sofia – Spartak Varna: BTTS Yes @2.38
2. Hibernian – Kilmarnock: BTTS Yes @1.94
3. OFK Beograd – Zemun: BTTS Yes @2.38
The system displays an average model score of 66/100 and an average EV of +41.4%.
The 2 out of 3 principle involves creating three double bets from the three selections. Two correct predictions out of three thus allow you to have a winning double bet, unlike a classic accumulator bet which requires validating all selections.
📊 A day particularly rich in opportunities
With 150 matches covered and 100 Value Bets detected, Saturday, August 22nd was one of the particularly busy days for the model.
But more Value Bets does not mean that you should increase the number of bets.
The objective remains to favour selections presenting the best compromise between estimated probability, available odds, EV and model score, while maintaining reasonable stake management.
Conclusion
August 22, 2026 promises to be a very busy day for FootProbability.
The BTTS Oui de Levski Sofia – Spartak Varna takes first place with a model score of 68/100, ahead of Hibernian – Kilmarnock and OFK Beograd – Zemun.
Beyond the Top 3, several major leagues offer interesting situations in very different markets: home win, BTTS, Over 2.5 or Under 2.5.
This is precisely the philosophy of FootProbability: analyze the probabilities before looking at the expected result, and seek value rather than simply following the favorites.
Sports betting involves the risk of financial loss. No statistical model can guarantee the outcome of a match. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose and stay in control of your bets.