This Sunday, August 23, 2026, the football schedule is particularly packed. The FootProbability statistical model analyzes 139 matches and identifies 71 Value Bets among the available odds.
As always, the goal is not to look for the most obvious favorite, but to identify situations where the probability estimated by the model seems greater than that suggested by the market odds.
Among all the matches analyzed, three selections stand out today due to their combination of model score, odds and expected value (EV).
🔥 Top 3 predictions of the day
🥇 KuPS – Mariehamn: Under 2.5 goals
The first pick of the day takes us to the Finnish Veikkausliiga with the match between KuPS and Mariehamn.
Football prediction probability: under 2.5 goals
- Odds: 2.92
- EV : +40,8 %
- Model score: 73/100
- Level: High potential
- Probable score: 2-0
With a score of 73/100, this selection is among the best-rated opportunities by the model today. The rating of 2.92 combined with an EV of +40.8% makes the Under 2.5 market particularly attractive based on available data.
🥈 Machida Zelvia – Urawa: over 2.5 goals
The second choice is headed to the Japanese J1 League.
Football prediction probability: over 2.5 goals
- Odds: 2.21
- EV : +37,0 %
- Model score: 68/100
- Level: Interesting
- Probable score: 1-1
The model assigns this selection a score of 68/100. At a score of 2.21, the detected deviation from the model's estimate produces an EV of +37.0%.
The probable score of 1-1 should not be interpreted as a certain prediction of the exact result: the Over 2.5 market is evaluated from the entire goal distribution calculated by the model.
🥉 Borac Banja Luka – Čelik: Both teams score
To complete our Top 3, let's head to the Premijer Liga of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Prediction Foot Probability: BTTS Yes
- Odds: 2.38
- EV : +34,0 %
- Model score: 62/100
- Level: Interesting
- Probable score: 1-1
FootProbability here favors the "Both Teams to Score" market. With odds of 2.38 and an EV calculated at +34.0%, this match completes a Top 3 composed of three different markets: Under 2.5, Over 2.5 and BTTS.
📊 Other Value Bets to Watch
Beyond the Top 3, several matches show significant discrepancies between the model's estimates and the available odds.
In Belgium, Club Brugge – Cercle Brugge stands out on the under 2.5 goals at 3.60, with an EV of +51.8% and a model score of 60/100.
In Switzerland, the model also detects Young Boys – FC Vaduz: less than 2.5 goals at 3.65, for an EV of +46.1% and a score of 60/100.
Finally, the Premier League offers a much bolder selection with Newcastle – Liverpool: Newcastle win at 4.20. The EV reaches +76.5%, but the model score remains more moderate at 53/100. This is precisely the type of selection where a high EV should not be confused with a high probability of success.
⚠️ A high EV does not mean a safe bet
Some daily odds generate particularly high EVs.
This is the case, for example, with Sonderjyske – Nordsjaelland, for which the model detects a Sonderjyske victory at 4.33, corresponding to an EV of +96.4%. Yet, its model score is only 55/100.
This is an important distinction.
EV measures the potential value of odds, not the certainty that a bet will win.
A selection with high expected value (EV) can therefore lose. Results should be evaluated over a large number of bets, not just a single match.
🎯 FootProbability's Top 3 for August 23
| Match | predictions | Odds | EV | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇮 KuPS – Mariehamn | Under 2.5 | 2,92 | +40,8 % | 73/100 |
| 🇯🇵 Machida Zelvia – Urawa | Over 2.5 | 2,21 | +37,0 % | 68/100 |
| 🇧🇦 Borac Banja Luka – Čelik | BTTS Yes | 2,38 | +34,0 % | 62/100 |
These three selections are distinguished above all by their balance between signal quality and odds value, rather than by the sole pursuit of the highest EV.
📈 139 matches analyzed today
The day of August 23rd offers particularly wide coverage with 139 matches analyzed, 71 Value Bets and 55 matches classified Score 50+ by FootProbability.
The selections are based on the FootProbability statistical model and evolve according to the available data and odds.
👉 Retrouvez l’ensemble des pronostics, probabilités, scores modèles et Value Bets dans l’Espace membre gratuit FootProbability.
Sports predictions are based on probabilities and are never a guarantee of winning. Odds may change. For adults only. Gamble responsibly.