The football predictions for August 16, 2026 offer another very eventful day for the FootProbability model.
Today, 133 matches were analyzed and 62 Value Bets were identified. The overall result shows an average EV of +29.5% and an average confidence of 45.6%.
Among all these opportunities, we have selected three matches presenting a particularly interesting profile by combining model score, confidence, expected value and available odds.
Here is our Top 3 FootProbability for August 16, 2026.
🥇 Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova: the Strong Match of the day
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02
EV: +31.4%
Confidence: 66.7%
Model score: 79/100
This is the strongest signal of the day.
On Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova, FootProbability detects an opportunity in the Over 2.5 goals market.
With odds of 2.02, the calculated EV reaches +31.4%. But it is above all the confidence of 66.7% and the excellent model score of 79/100 that allow this match to stand out.
The model also classifies this selection as "High potential".
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova : Over 2.5 buts @2,02
🥈 New York City FC – Philadelphia Union: NYCFC at home
Prediction: New York City FC victory
Odds: 2.39
EV: +27.7%
Confidence: 53.4%
Model score: 67/100
Our second selection heads to the Major League Soccer.
FootProbability here favours a victory for New York City FC against Philadelphia Union.
The 1X2 market offers odds of 2.39, for an estimated EV of +27.7%. The match achieves a solid model score of 67/100, accompanied by a confidence level of 53.4%.
We thus obtain a balanced profile: a rating above 2.00, a significant positive EV and a model score among the best of the day.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
New York City FC – Philadelphia Union: NYCFC victory @2.39
🥉 GAIS – Malmö FF: the BTTS No to follow
Prognosis: BTTS No
Odd: 2.45
EV: +31.3%
Model score: 63/100
Our third selection takes us to Sweden with GAIS – Malmö FF.
This time, the model detects value in the BTTS Non market, in other words, on the fact that both teams do not score.
The odds of 2.45 represent an EV of +31.3%, while the match achieves a model score of 63/100.
This choice also allows us to diversify our selection for the day: after an Over/Under market and a 1X2 bet, we add a BTTS market.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
GAIS – Malmö FF: BTTS No @2.45
📊 Top 3 FootProbability du 16 août 2026
| Match | predictions | Odds | EV | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova | Over 2.5 | 2,02 | +31,4 % | 79/100 |
| 🥈 NYCFC – Philadelphia Union | NYCFC Victory | 2,39 | +27,7 % | 67/100 |
| 🥉 GAIS – Malmö FF | BTTS No | 2,45 | +31,3 % | 63/100 |
🧠 Why this Top 3 rather than the three biggest EVs?
A high EV does not automatically mean that a bet is better.
Some of today's matches have much higher expected values, but also particularly high odds.
For example, FC Nordsjaelland – Silkeborg displays an Under 2.5 at 3.22, with an EV of +49.8%, but its model score drops to 59/100.
Even more spectacular, Randers FC – FC Copenhagen shows a Randers victory at 4.80 with +81.8% EV, but only 51/100 at the model score.
This is precisely why FootProbability does not limit itself to ranking matches by EV.
For our editorial selection, we are looking for more of a balance between the value detected and the overall strength of the signal.
⚖️ Why GAIS – Malmö rather than Chicago – Portland?
The model's automatic Top 3 initially placed Chicago Fire – Portland Timbers in third position.
And the profile remains interesting: Under 2.5, model score of 66/100 and EV of +29.4%. The main reason we didn't include it in our editorial selection is its rating of 3.50.
By choosing GAIS – Malmö at 2.45, our final selection presents much more consistent odds:
2,02 — 2,39 — 2,45
The objective is therefore not to modify the model's calculations, but to offer a complementary editorial reading among the opportunities it detects.
🔥 A day of 133 matches analyzed
FootProbability currently covers 133 matches, of which 62 are classified as Value Bets and 44 achieve a model score of 50 or more.
This amount of data makes it possible not to limit ourselves to the major championships or the most popular matches.
The model analyzes the available matches, estimates their probabilities and then compares them to the actual odds when available in order to look for potential value discrepancies.
⚽ Our 3 predictions for August 16, 2026
In summary:
🥇 Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova
➡️ Over 2.5 @2,02
📈 EV +31,4 % | 🧠 79/100
🥈 New York City FC – Philadelphia Union
➡️ Victoire NYCFC @2,39
📈 EV +27,7 % | 🧠 67/100
🥉 GAIS – Malmö FF
➡️ BTTS Non @2,45
📈 EV +31,3 % | 🧠 63/100
The Strong Match of August 16 remains clearly Oţelul – Universitatea Craiova, which reaches 79/100, with 66.7% confidence and an EV of +31.4%.
Find all the analyzed matches and the Value Bets of the day in the FootProbability Member Area.
FP Analyst — Trust the Numbers.
FootProbability predictions are based on a statistical model and do not guarantee any results. Odds may change until kick-off. Sports betting involves the risk of loss. 18+ — Gamble responsibly.