The football predictions for August 17, 2026 offer a more focused selection today for FootProbability.
At the time of our analysis, the model studied 36 matches, detected 20 Value Bets, with an average EV of +21.0% and an average confidence of 48.9%.
After comparing the available opportunities, we selected three meetings that we believe offer the best balance between model score, confidence, rating and expected value.
🥇 Spartak Varna – Septemvri Sofia: the Strong Match of the day
Prediction: Spartak Varna victory
Odds: 1.93
EV: +27.2%
Confidence: 65.9%
Model score: 74/100
Probable score: 2-0
This is undoubtedly the strongest signal of the day.
FootProbability estimates the probability associated with its choice at 65.9%, while finding odds of 1.93. This combination produces an EV of +27.2% and allows the selection to reach 74/100, with the "High potential" level.
C’est également la seule sélection du Top 3 à dépasser nettement les 60 % de confiance.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Spartak Varna – Septemvri Sofia: victory Spartak Varna @1.93
🥈 Deportivo La Coruña – Elche: goals at Riazor?
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.38
EV: +27.4%
Confidence: 47.3%
Model score: 61/100
For our second selection, head to Spain with Deportivo La Coruña – Elche.
FootProbability detects here an opportunity on over 2.5 goals, offered at odds of 2.38. The EV reaches +27.4% and the model score 61/100.
The context also makes this poster particularly interesting: it is Deportivo's return to La Liga after eight years of absence, with a first match at Riazor against Elche.
Deportivo is expected to rely heavily on Aubameyang in attack, who is expected to start, while Elche begins a new chapter under Martín Anselmi.
Note, however, that this contextual information does not replace the statistical calculation of FootProbability. The selection remains based on the value detected by the model.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Deportivo La Coruña – Elche: Over 2.5 goals @2.38
🥉 Austin – FC Dallas: our editorial pick
Prognosis: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.30
EV: +37.2%
Model score: 61/100
Probable score: 1-1
For third place, we're making a slightly different choice from FootProbability's Automatic Top 3.
The automatic ranking placed Cardiff – Wrexham in third position with a Cardiff win @2.56, +32.0% EV, 51.5% confidence and 59/100.
But Austin – FC Dallas presents an even more interesting profile for our editorial selection.
The model assigns it a score of 61/100, compared to 59/100 for Cardiff. The odds remain reasonable at 2.30, while the EV climbs to +37.2%. The most likely score is 1-1.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Austin – FC Dallas: Under 2.5 goals @2.30
📊 Our Top 3 FootProbability for August 17th
| Match | predictions | Odds | EV | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Spartak Varna – Septemvri Sofia | Spartak Victory | 1,93 | +27,2 % | 74/100 |
| 🥈 Deportivo La Coruña – Elche | Over 2.5 | 2,38 | +27,4 % | 61/100 |
| 🥉 Austin – FC Dallas | Under 2.5 | 2,30 | +37,2 % | 61/100 |
I find this trio particularly interesting because the odds remain consistent: 1.93 / 2.38 / 2.30.
We deliberately avoid selecting certain spectacular EVs associated with much higher odds.
⚠️ Why not just take the highest EVs?
This is a key point of the FootProbability method.
Today, several matches present impressive figures. Dečić – Bokelj, for example, shows an away win at 8.00 with +140.7% EV, but only 55/100.
Same phenomenon with Sassuolo – Cesena: away win at 6.50, EV +147.0%, but model score of only 51/100.
These opportunities are interesting to observe, but a huge EV does not automatically transform an outsider into a strong selection.
A Value Bet measures the difference between the estimated probability and the price offered by the market. It does not mean that the scenario will occur.
That is why our editorial Top 3 today favours ratings between 1.93 and 2.38 with model scores of 61 to 74/100.
🔥 Spartak Varna, our number 1 pick
If one had to choose only one match from the three, the choice of model is particularly clear:
Spartak Varna – Septemvri Sofia
➡️ Victoire Spartak Varna @1,93
📈 EV +27,2 %
⭐ Confiance 65,9 %
🧠 74/100
⚽ Probable score: 2-0.
The gap with the other selections is significant enough that Spartak logically retains its status as Match of the day.
⚽ The 3 predictions for August 17, 2026
🥇 Spartak Varna – Septemvri Sofia
🎯 Victoire Spartak Varna @ 1,93
📈 EV +27,2 % | 🧠 74/100
🥈 Deportivo La Coruña – Elche
🎯 Over 2.5 buts @ 2,38
📈 EV +27,4 % | 🧠 61/100
🥉 Austin – FC Dallas
🎯 Under 2.5 buts @ 2,30
📈 EV +37,2 % | 🧠 61/100
The model has currently identified 20 Value Bets among the 36 matches analyzed.
Find all the matches, probabilities, odds and Value Bets directly in l’FootProbability Member Area.
FP Analyst — Trust the Numbers.
FootProbability analyses are based on a statistical model and do not guarantee any results. Odds may change until kick-off. Sports betting involves the risk of loss. 18+ — Gamble responsibly.