The football day of August 18, 2026 is less busy than previous ones, but it offers three particularly interesting matches in the Champions League play-offs.
FootProbability has currently analyzed 6 matches and detected 3 Value Bets, with an average EV of +24.2% and an average confidence of 41.1%.
And today's highlight: our three best opportunities are the three Champions League matches scheduled for this Tuesday: Dinamo Zagreb – Viking, Fenerbahçe – Lyon, and Levski Sofia – AEK Athens. The external schedule confirms these three matches for August 18th.
These matches correspond to the first leg of the final qualifying round to access the Champions League group stage.
🥇 Dinamo Zagreb – Viking: Match of the Day
Pronostic : Under 2.5 buts
Cote : 2,33
EV : +32,3 %
Confiance : 44,2 %
Score modèle : 57/100
Score probable : 1-1
This is the selection that currently achieves the best score in the FootProbability model.
The model detects value on a match with fewer than 2.5 goals, with odds of 2.33 and a particularly interesting EV of +32.3%.
The calculated probable score is 1-1, which remains perfectly consistent with the selected market.
With a score of 57/100, we nevertheless remain in the "Interesting" category. This is therefore not an extremely strong signal: the detected value is interesting, but the level of caution should remain appropriate.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Dinamo Zagreb – Viking: Under 2.5 goals @2.33
🥈 Fenerbahçe – Lyon: watch out for the goal market
Pronostic : Under 2.5 buts
Cote : 2,16
EV : +29,4 %
Confiance : 40,7 %
Score modèle : 54/100
Score probable : 1-1
This is probably the most prestigious poster of the evening.
Fenerbahçe and Lyon are vying for a place in the league stage after progressing through the previous round. Fenerbahçe notably eliminated Sturm Graz 3-0 on aggregate, while Lyon qualified against Sparta Prague after a 3-0 victory in the second leg.
Despite the offensive potential of both teams, FootProbability is not simply looking to determine which team looks stronger.
The model compares its probabilities to the price offered by the market.
And at 2.16, it is the Under 2.5 goals that stands out as the Value Bet with an EV of +29.4%.
The probable score is once again 1-1.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Fenerbahçe – Lyon: Under 2.5 goals @2.16
🥉 Levski Sofia – AEK Athens: the most audacious bet
Prediction: Levski Sofia to win
Odds: 3.02
EV: +24.2%
Confidence: 41.1%
Model score: 42/100
Probable score: 2-1
Our third selection is clearly the riskiest of the Top 3.
FootProbability detects value on a Levski Sofia home win, offered at 3.02.
The context is interesting: Levski enters this playoff after winning its first four league matches, although its coach Julio Velázquez acknowledges the significant difference in resources with AEK.
However, the model only assigns 42/100 to this selection.
This is important: Positive EV does not mean a high probability of winning.
The price of 3.02 seems attractive compared to the calculated probability, but FootProbability logically classifies this selection in the "Caution" category.
🎯 FootProbability Prediction
Levski Sofia – AEK Athens: Levski victory @3.02
📊 Top 3 FootProbability du 18 août
Match Pronostic Cote EV Score
🥇 Dinamo Zagreb – Viking Under 2.5 2,33 +32,3 % 57/100
🥈 Fenerbahçe – Lyon Under 2.5 2,16 +29,4 % 54/100
🥉 Levski Sofia – AEK Athens Victoire Levski 3,02 +24,2 % 42/100
🧩 Et pour un système 2 sur 3 ?
The three selections currently give:
Average score: 51/100
Average EV: +28.7%
The principle of the 2 out of 3 system is to play the three possible combinations of two selections.
But today, the overall confidence level remains moderate. With scores of 57, 54 and 42/100, this selection should be considered as a value bet, and not as a high-security combination.
A limited stake therefore remains consistent with the level of risk indicated by the model.
🔥 FP Analyst's #1 choice
If only one selection could be kept today:
Dinamo Zagreb – Viking
🎯 Under 2.5 buts
💰 Cote : 2,33
📈 EV : +32,3 %
⭐ Confiance : 44,2 %
🧠 Score modèle : 57/100
⚽ Score probable : 1-1
This is not our strongest Match Fort in recent days, but it is currently the one that presents the best balance in the model's ranking.
⚽ The 3 predictions for August 18, 2026
🥇 Dinamo Zagreb – Viking
🎯 Under 2.5 @ 2,33
📈 EV +32,3 % | 🧠 57/100
🥈 Fenerbahçe – Lyon
🎯 Under 2.5 @ 2,16
📈 EV +29,4 % | 🧠 54/100
🥉 Levski Sofia – AEK Athens
🎯 Victoire Levski @ 3,02
📈 EV +24,2 % | 🧠 42/100
This day perfectly illustrates the FootProbability philosophy: we don't simply look for the favorite in a match. We look for the difference between the probability calculated by the model and the odds offered by the market.
FP Analyst — Trust the Numbers.
FootProbability analyses are based on a statistical model and do not guarantee any results. Odds may change until kick-off. Sports betting involves the risk of loss. 18+ — Gamble responsibly.