This Friday, August 21, 2026, FootProbability takes a close look at another particularly rich day of football.
The analysis model today analyzes 55 matches and detects 38 Value Bets, with an average EV of +35.4% and an average confidence of 45.9%.
Among all these matches, three selections stand out in particular according to the FootProbability score.
⭐ FC Levadia Tallinn – Trans Narva: the Strong Match of the day
The best score for the model today belongs to the Estonian league match between FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva.
Prediction: BTTS Yes — Both Teams to Score
Odds: 2.10
EV: +18.9%
Confidence: 72.1%
Model Score: 71/100
Probable Score: 2-0
What particularly distinguishes this selection is its confidence level: 72.1%, significantly higher than the average for the day.
The model also detects a positive Expected Value of +18.9% at a rate of 2.10.
However, be aware that high confidence or a positive EV never guarantees the outcome of a match. These indicators only represent the statistical evaluation produced by the FootProbability model.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability du 21 août 2026
🥇 FC Levadia Tallinn – Trans Narva
Prediction: BTTS Yes
Rating: 2.10
EV: +18.9%
Confidence: 72.1%
Model score: 71/100
Levadia – Trans Narva takes first place in the ranking and becomes the FootProbability Strong Match of the day.
🥈 Standard Liège – RAAL La Louvière
Next stop, Belgium for the second selection.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.10
EV: +42.6%
Confidence: 48.6%
Model score: 68/100
The model here anticipates a potentially favorable match with at least three goals, with a particularly interesting EV of +42.6%.
🥉 SC St. Tönis – Eintracht Frankfurt
Third place goes to a DFB-Pokal match.
Prediction: BTTS Yes
Rating: 2.35
EV: +49.1%
Trust: 42.1%
Model score: 60/100
With a rating of 2.35 and an EV of +49.1%, this selection completes the Top 3 of the model for this Friday.
📊 55 matches analyzed today
The program for August 21st is much more extensive than some previous days.
FootProbability lists:
55 matches analyzed
38 Value Bets
28 matches with a score ≥ 50/100
Average EV: +35.4%
Average Confidence: 45.9%
The analyses cover several European championships, the DFB-Pokal, Ligue 1, Ligue 2, the English Premier League, Serie B, La Liga, the Japanese J1 League as well as various international championships.
🔎 Some other Value Bets to watch out for
The Top 3 represents the highest-ranked selections, but other opportunities also emerge from the model.
In Germany, Hansa Rostock – VfB Stuttgart is associated with a prediction Under 2.5 @2.88, with an EV of +33.8% and a model score of 58/100.
Still in DFB-Pokal, Preußen Münster – Karlsruher SC emerges with a victory for Münster @3.70, with an EV of +63.6% and a score of 55/100.
In the English Premier League, the model selects BTTS Yes @2.50 on Arsenal – Coventry, for an EV of +44.2% and a score of 56/100.
And in France, Marseille – Strasbourg is trading below 2.5 @2.55, with an EV of +12.2%.
💡 What is a Value Bet?
A Value Bet appears when the probability estimated by the model makes a price potentially more attractive than what the market indicates.
Prenons un exemple simplifié.
Si une cote correspond à une probabilité implicite de 40 %, mais qu’un modèle estime l’événement à 50 %, il existe théoriquement un écart favorable.
This difference can result in a positive Expected Value (EV).
This does not mean that the bet will win.
A bet with positive value can lose, and a bet with negative value can win. The concept of value becomes most meaningful when studied across a large number of selections.
🧠 Why don't the Top 3 correspond to the highest EV?
This is an important point in the FootProbability method.
Le classement ne consiste pas simplement à sélectionner les trois EV les plus élevées.
Some of today's matches show spectacular EVs, but remain classified as Match watched.
For example, Holywell – Barry Town shows an EV of +134.3% at odds of 6.05, but is not classified as a Value Bet.
For example, Holywell – Barry Town shows an EV of +134.3% at odds of 6.05, but is not classified as a Value Bet.
FootProbability therefore combines different criteria to establish its hierarchy: available odds, EV, confidence and model score.
The goal is not to confuse high odds with the best statistical opportunity.
🎯 The 3 predictions to remember today
The FootProbability Top 3 for August 21, 2026 is therefore:
🥇 Levadia Tallinn – Trans Narva : BTTS Oui @2,10
Score modèle : 71/100
🥈 Standard Liège – RAAL La Louvière : Over 2.5 @2,10
Model score: 68/100
🥉 SC St. Tönis – Eintracht Frankfurt : BTTS Oui @2,35
Score modèle : 60/100.
Odds can change right up until the start of the matches. A value bet identified during the analysis may therefore become more or less attractive if the market shifts.
FootProbability predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Sports betting involves the risk of loss. Gamble responsibly.